Profit Picks | WNBA Best Bets, Player Props & Odds | 7/6

Looking for the best WNBA picks today? Tune in to Profit Picks with Hakeem "Skee" Profit and Rob Veno as they break down the biggest WNBA games, best bets, player props, betting trends, and market movement across the WNBA season.

Speaker 1: What's up?

Speaker 2: Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you

are new, we do always start the show by being transparent.

Didn't do any shows over the weekend. We never do,

but it was it was good for me. I'm trying

to think what I even had. It was a winner. Oh,

I had the under in the Aces game five percent winner,

So now won fifteen of my last eighteen bets and

I'm trying to keep it going here. Good to be

back with Vino. Hopefully you got a good holiday weekend. Yeah,

how you doing today?

Speaker 1: I'm good, Ski.

Speaker 3: The holiday weekend was good, The WNBA was bad. My

seventeen and four run turned into seventeen and nine, So

really quick, guys, When when Ski promo's at the end

of the show and tells you, hey, maybe you think

Ski's a bumman, you want Vino correct that right now?

It could be the other way around right now, or

if you believe that we got all the bad ones

out of the way, which I do, then we'll be

back on track here towards that seventeen and four again.

Speaker 1: But it was a rough weekend, Ski. It started Friday night.

Speaker 3: I think I had links first half against the Liberty

I'm almost positive by the way we talked that day.

You like Liberty, but Links had been such a good

first quarter, first half team I went with that did

not get there, followed it up with a revenge play

with the Atlanta Dream on Saturday. Golden State really was

the better team all the way, starting to make me

question Atlanta a little bit and certainly upgrade Golden State.

And then yesterday a little too much faith in the

Dallas Wings offense and that total did not get there.

So those were the low lights of the five that

we got bad, got wrong.

Speaker 1: But seventeen and nine still pretty good. We'll take it.

But I'd like to get.

Speaker 3: Back to that seventeen and four form starting here today.

Speaker 2: My bad. Let's do it. We have a few games

here to talk about. We will start at the top.

That looks like the Valkyries and the Mystics five and

a half for the total of one fifty six, And

just looking at the injury report for this one, I

don't see anybody on there for Golden State. For the Mystics,

Sonya Citron game time decision once again, she did miss

the last game. Yeah, both of these teams, no mistaken

coming off of win as underdogs. Yeah, Valkyries beat the

dream both versus the Dream. So maybe the Dreams is

not playing very good basketball right now. But I feel

like the Mystics they've gotten healthier and they've been playing

a little bit better. The Mystics very good at home,

especially as an underdog. I'm pretty sure they've covered every

game this year. The Valkyries, here's my question. Yes, they've

been playing well. Most of their games have been first

the dream who just said, you know, maybe not in

the best rhythm lately. I just can't help but think

on the road laying a couple of possessions, A few possessions?

Are we now? You know, how do I call it?

It's is there?

Speaker 1: No?

Speaker 2: Is the value gone on the Valkyries? Is it now?

Like overpriced? It's kind of what I'm trying to say

here for the Valkyries, and I feel that way a

little bit. You know, I hate that Sonya Citron is

game con decision. We did to see the Mystics went

without her in the last game, and they do have

a size advantage versus Valkyries. We know the Valkyries like

to try to pack the pain and force teams to shoot.

But I can't ignore the size advantage that the Mystics have.

All it takes is a coach shooting Nite for Golden

State and they can go down. I'm thinking towards the

Mystics here.

Speaker 1: You know.

Speaker 2: And if I have to say anything about the total,

both of these teams played pretty slow, both of them.

I think the defense is better than the offense. I

can understand why the total is one fifty six. I

don't think it's low for a reason. I think it

can still stay under. So under or how do you

feel about either one of those?

Speaker 1: Well, a little bit to unpack here with this game.

Speaker 3: First of all, I think we said it the other

day when Washington was the underdog at home to Atlanta

or no, yeah, they were a home underdog to Atlanta

and they won. It's their role right the game before,

I think they lost as a favorite against Connecticut, but

road favorite isn't really what they do. They play well,

especially in this type of spot. To further probably make

Washington's case here, Ski, they had twenty seven turnovers against

the Dream and still won like they were getting. They

were getting beat double digits in that game and came

back totally shut Atlanta down.

Speaker 1: Second half.

Speaker 3: Your point about both teams playing slow, less possessions taking

five and a half, That angle makes sense if you're

looking at side your other thought about maybe being overvalued.

I keep power ratings on the teams, Golden State road

power rating, Washington home power rating. I come up with

Golden State minus two, not five and a half. So

you could see a lot of this Golden State surge

baked into the line here, and there's not a lot

of you know, for those who bet on the WNBA,

there's not always a surge for Washington. They're not one

of your more popular teams. But this Golden State's team's

gaining popularity. You got to shut down their threes. That's

what Washington will try to do here, is stop them

from shooting threes. Last thing I'll say about Golden State

just and it could be a bad matchup for the Dream, right.

Speaker 1: I think we know now that it's a bad matchup

for the Dream.

Speaker 3: Got beat three times in their last four games against

Golden State, in their last four games overall, three of

them against Golden State. But Golden State does all those

little things on the basketball floor that never show up.

You know, I'm trying to watch that game pretty close.

The other day, you have somebody coming off a curl

cut for Golden State and they're on their way to

the rim, and their bigs just seal the other big

so it's just an open lane right to the rim.

I mean, they do that little stuff every single play

that other teams don't necessarily do every play well coached

Natalie Nicasi.

Speaker 1: They're predicated on defense. I don't know. I like both

sides of that.

Speaker 3: Perhaps a little bit of under, but more than that,

maybe a little bit of Washington plus five and a half.

If in fact, Golden State doesn't shoot threes well, and

they don't always shoot them well, but they always crank.

Speaker 1: Them up there, then Washington's right in this one.

Speaker 2: Arrows reminding us that the Valkyries are four and oh

versus Mystics. I like this point by Mark. Mystics don't

play again until Sunday. I would think their rest citron

till then, to ensure she's one hundred percent moving forward.

In my opinion, it seems like the smart things do.

And if you feel that way, if you're a person

like me who likes the Mystics side, you wait, because

she's rule it out. We're gonna get the line moving

even further than it's already has. And you know, I

like to get the best of the number if I could.

And if you like the Valkyries, you probably should have

already gotten involved. But if you don't think she's gonna

play like the rest of us, you don't want to wait.

But me, I will wait. Let her get ruled out.

You're gonna give me maybe seven and a half. That's

kind of nice. I don't know for a team that

is undefeated as a home dog. So that's why I'm

looking at this game. I went on the injury report.

Maybe go drive home, and by the time I get home,

we should have some news. Next game my son and Lynx.

This one opened up. I'm sorry, I don't have the opener.

I think it was fifteen somewhere around there, and I'm

looking at twelve right now. Total one sixty five. I

did see Olivia at my house, ruled out and then

morels and missing for Connecticut. My house is a big deal.

I mean, we've all seen how great she is, how

good she makes the links offense, look, et cetera, et cetera.

The sun they are fairly healthy and I don't know

I just you know, Minnesota wasn't expected to be just

good this year. A lot of you know them continuing

to be good as being Olivia Miles in my opinion,

I know Courney Williams is more than capable playing point

guard because she had before, but the team around is

just not the same. I didn't trust Minnesota land twelve

here without Olivia Miles. I just would not feel comfortable.

So Son would be my preferred side here. Anything from

you you know Son links.

Speaker 1: Yeah.

Speaker 3: They threw another game away in the fourth quarter the

other day. Ski Connecticut had Dallas from the opening tip

all the way through three quarters. Dallas couldn't really do

anything offensively. And it's funny as I'm watching that game Friday,

Thursday night or whatever it was. You know, it was

on the heels of Connecticut having two really good defensive

games in a row. Right, they played the Sky and

held them to a record low shooting. We talked about

it a little bit. I wasn't a believer that the

Connecticut defense had gotten any better, but when I watched

them against Dallas, they caused a lot of problems, especially

with Dallas's ball handling. Against the Connecticut defense, They're definitely

playing hard. There's no question about it. Minnesota without Olivia Miles,

I want.

Speaker 1: No part of it.

Speaker 3: She's the primary ball handler on this team, and now

you're going to switch that up for one game against

a team that you're double digit favored against. I don't

know what that's going to look like. I will say this,

Minnesota is maybe about a week and a half away

from being really dangerous. Dorka is game time decision tonight.

Speaker 1: She's been out all.

Speaker 3: Year and I was just reading this morning that they

expect the Fisha Kalier back imminently. It won't be tonight,

but we're gonna see her, if not by the end

of this week, by the time next week, when they

have all those pieces together, Miles.

Speaker 1: Collier, another big in the middle, they're going to be dangerous.

But that isn't tonight.

Speaker 3: I think Connecticut's just playing too hard at this point

in time to not cover this number. Now, a lot

of it got taken away from us right with the

Miles injury report. Could have had fifteen I think was

the opener here, down to twelve twelve and a half.

Speaker 1: But still it seems to me like Connecticut's in somewhat

of a groove here.

Speaker 3: Coaches as much as said it that they're just becoming

more cohesive as a unit, where camaraderie and that sort

of stuff for everybody on a team likes each other

and they like going out there and playing for each other.

To me, plus twelve probably worth a shot with Connecticut, we.

Speaker 2: Agree on that. Let's move over to the last game,

Storm and Sparks looks like four total one seventy five.

You do not have Kelsey Plumb or a camera Brink tonight.

You know this was a normal rest situation. I'll be

better in the Storm, absolutely would, and I well not

absolutely would, but I'd probably be better than the Storm.

My thing is here, I just don't think LA should

be laying without Plumb, without Brinker. I just don't view

them that good. I haven't been playing good basketball. At

least Seattle has been healthy Seattle with the one thing

is they're just they're so inconsistent. I know they're not

the most talented team, but it just seems like one

night they're making everything, the next night they steam. But

in the game like this, I just don't trust LA's offense.

I think I trust Seattle's defense to most out of

anything in this game, So I would I would think

to take the plus three and a half here or

plus four. Any thoughts from you, you know, yeah.

Speaker 3: I'll just add two negatives for the LA Sparks here.

They're the team that hasn't played in the longest time.

All these other teams to break the break kind of

hurt me too. I don't think I calculated how much

of a difference the break was gonna make in some

of these teams. But just to get on the original point,

LA hasn't played since the twenty seventh of June. That's

nine days off. That's a long time. Kelsey Plumb not

able to come back. Still, maybe we see her a

little later in the week, maybe not until next week.

Speaker 1: But I don't know.

Speaker 3: Sometimes we run through those numbers ski how much is

too much, how much is good rest, how much time

off leads to more practices to figure things out, or

how much just leads to rustiness. The one constant with

Los Angeles is they can't play defense. I've been on

the wrong side of Seattle twice now since the break,

thinking that their offense had come alive, and they crushed me,

either with a team total or a full game total

in two in a row.

Speaker 1: They played bad offense.

Speaker 3: Here, you know, as stubborn as I am, I'm gonna

come back with them one more time, somewhat fade of

LA's defense, somewhat thinking that Seattle can't shoot as bad

as they've shot the last two games. As he came

back last game, it was her first game of the year.

Now she's got a game under her belt that helps Seattle.

Team total here for Seattle is just what I'm looking at.

Speaker 1: Ski.

Speaker 3: I don't think Los Angeles can hold them. I'm gonna

get the exact number as we speak. Looks like Seattle's

asked to get to eighty six points here in this game.

Eighty five and a half is their team total. You

know you're asking for under twenty two points a quarter

against an LA defense that can give up thirty at

any time. I just think that Seattle, they've had more

games since the break. LA not a good defensive team.

I'm in already on the Seattle team total over.

Speaker 2: Here. I just I can't do it. You know, I

won fifteen out of my last eighteen bets two losses

for the Storm games the two and three. My fingers

are not letting me push confirm on storm anything right now.

But I agree with the thought process.

Speaker 3: If they do press storm, let me know, just text me,

let me well, they don't like ski too much, so

let me get the hell out of here.

Speaker 2: Get out. You know, that's how it's been lately. But

we'll see. Maybe I'll stay out the way for this game.

I'll let you have it all right. That is uh,

that's all the games for today. So before we wrap

it up, to see what we have to promo, and

we will go with yeah, good old faithful there it

is the two for one, three day all access all

of Robino's plays, all of my place, only sixty nine bucks.

And I mean we both have been doing well. We

set the numbers with it's just seventeen to nine, seventeen

plus fifteen that's thirty two, So thirty two and twelve.

That's the kind of round we've been on combined together.

But if you say, hey, you know, I don't like

that guy, he's an asshole, rock quit rob Vino or

vice versa by three, get three three six days for

just sixty nine bucks. You can pick whichever one you

prefer on that no veno. I'll pass it back to

you ask you if there's anything else you'd like to promote,

you know, feel free and if you have a vis

back for the show, we love to hear it. If

you don't, all good.

Speaker 3: Yeah for promotion is concerned. I went through at early ski.

I mean, it was a rough, rough weekend for me.

But then again, like you say, the numbers still add up.

And the good thing about the two person package is

that you know you carry me through with the five

percent or whatnot. My plays are only in the two

percent range, So I could lose two and you could

lose one, and we're still making money off of that package.

Speaker 1: No other further promotions though.

Speaker 3: Tomorrow will a five dollars Tuesday, But I will leave

a best bet here because I feel strongly about playing

against the Los Angeles defense in this game. So I'm

gonna leave you with Seattle team total over eighty five

and a half and somewhat of an offensive bounce back game.

They had been playing really, really good offense up until

the last two. My feeling is it's attributed somewhat to

the break, the layoff, whatever, but they do have more

games under their belt since that Commissioner's cut break than

does LA.

Speaker 1: That long layoff. I don't know that they're gonna get

any better defensively with that long layoff.

Speaker 3: So for me, it's the Storm team total over eighty

five and a half.

Speaker 2: All right, good stuff on that. For myself a little

bit different, you know, I don't like to get best

that I haven't made. But what I will do is

I just remind you guys. I mean, it will be

my best bet for the show for show purpose, but

I'm going to monitor Andrew report Citron. If she's rolled out.

I would love to get a better number on Washington

against Golden State even without her. I think that the

side is good enough. I think that the rest advantage

I think is three days to one. It works in

their favor, and they've been playing good basketball and this

is their role. They've been good as a home dog.

So Washington, if you are not the kind of person

who wants to wait, the best number you can get

right now is five and a half, I believe, But

I will wait if she's rolled out. I still like it.

If she's rolled in. You know, I do think that

they can even win the game. You obviously will get

a worse number, maybe like a three and a half

or two and a half, but I think Washington is

the right side. So, like I said, for show purpose today,

Washington plus five and a half will be my best bet.

You know, appreciate you taking the time to kept these

games with me. Helps my process. I'm sure we help

everybody else out there as well. Chat you always want

to let you know you're appreciated. Best of luck everybody

on all of your action, and we'll catch you all

again tomorrow.