Total Bases | MLB Picks Today: Tuesday Betting Preview, Odds & Best Bets | 7/7

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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Tuesday, it is time

for Total Basis. It's also five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk,

which means myself, I've already got one up and the

two guys that you see on the screen with me

will have plays up on the website for just five dollars.

Good night for me last night, because I didn't bet anything,

and it was a rare pass for me. But it

was one of those nights, Brian, where anything I would

have played would have been wrong. So I felt good

about the past when it was all said and done.

Only had a couple of opinions, didn't think anything was

strong enough to play it, and it turned out that

all those opinions were incorrect. So it's a rare scenario

where I didn't play anything and I feel good about

it coming into today. How was your Monday night?

Speaker 2: Yeah, mine was just the opposite. I thought for sure

I wasn't gonna use anything, and then a couple of

games fell into my line parameters, so I had three

one and a half percent plays on one and two

on them and they were all blownouts. It was there

was no doubts. I mean, I had the Washington over

I had Philadelphia Phillies. I mean it, it was. It

was a day that uh I wish I had just

passed save saved a little bit of juice there, But

those days happened, and uh we just got a boss.

Speaker 1: Back Tokyo, Brandon, welcome in. How was how was your Monday? Uh?

Speaker 3: Yeah it was. I think I went three and two.

If Atlanta had won that game, I would have had

a great day, but they didn't. And that's how it goes.

Uh May there there May his strikeout prop was only

three and a half. So I took the over on

that easy win and I was like Brian, I had

the Phillies as well, which that was. Oh my goodness,

what a horrible game. That was terrible the Phillies. I

scored one mL, just terrible.

Speaker 2: Oh he scored one run in the first after they

should have probably been four or five. I was disappointed

even before the pitching.

Speaker 3: Came out before the All Star break. You're gonna get

lit up, like Adam said it yesterday.

Speaker 1: So yeah, we talked about it. Yet we talked about

it on yesterday show at the Open. I gotta be honest,

that was a big contributor to me passing for the

day because I came on the show, I said, this

really is the spot where the Philly should win easily.

And as soon as they were down whatever, they were

down fifteen to one, I was like, you know what,

this is probably stuff that we're gonna have to deal.

You're gonna have to be careful out there this week. Right,

we're now five days out from the All Star Break.

Guys are hitting the home stretch to maybe get some

time off for the first time since February. Some of

these guys have played in the World Baseball Classic, which

is even longer. They even had less of an off season,

So that is something to keep in mind as we

handicap these games today. Tokyo, Brandon, I'm coming back to

you here. Something we talked about on the show yesterday,

which which did come true, was the Cam Schlitzler bounce back.

You had sort of mentioned that you probably thought that

was going to be the case. He was dominant and

the game did stay under So that's something that we

talked about. The under seven and a half being in play,

it was a five to one final. The Rays were

the hottest team on Playing and Earth, and suddenly they've

lost three straight so our feature game tonight Yankees raised

TBS Tropic Cannifield, second game of a four game set,

kick us off with this one.

Speaker 3: Yeah, like Adam mentioned, it is five dollars Tuesday. I

have two plays out, Adam has one out, Brian definitely

will have one out today, So good time to get

a double play or just grab a bunch of single

plays of ours for five dollars. It's a good day

for that we put out. No matter what the value are,

are all five dollars except five percent those Yes, it's

just a thing about baseball, like I say, the eb

and flow of baseball when when elite pitchers have a

horrible game, they almost always bounce back. So I'm going

to be all over Sanchez in his start. And I

knew Schlitzler was going to have a good game yesterday.

I just didn't trust the Yankee bats, but they scored

just enough. You know, when Schlitler holds the other team

down to what one or two runs, you don't really

need a lot to win the game. So there are

a couple of pictures in that position today, which we

will get to as the show goes on. Regarding this game,

everything to me points Tampa Bay today. I've got seymore

eight spots higher than Will Warren. I've got Tampa's bullpen

six spots higher than the Yankees, and I've got Tampa

Bay's hitting a current form almost twenty spots ahead of

the Yankees. So it would be Tampa or nothing for

me in this one. You find a way to bet

them somehow. I'm not convinced that the Yankees are out

of their free fall yet, even though they're starting to

show some signs, but they just keep dropping the ball.

The bad news bears without Judge hard to back this

in my opinion.

Speaker 1: It's a good point. You know, it's something that we

talked about way back. I think it was Brian ahead

of the series with the Guardians. Judge goes down, He's

going to be down for a period of time, and

you know, previous five years Aaron Judge out of the lineup,

the Yankees play something like four forty win percentage baseball,

and they had those couple of wins out of the gate,

probably relative to maybe their opponent at the time. But

since you know, if you look at the body of

work since he's been out, I don't have it in

front of me right here, but it's probably not far

from that, is there is? Are the Yankees still a

fade without judge for you right now?

Speaker 2: Well they are today and this is going to be

my part of the parlay. We'll get it over early quick.

I'm gonna play Tampa Bay here. Let me get to

the lines first. Tampa Bay, I would say more than

lefty against Warren, he's about a maybe about a one

to eighteen, one eighteen out there right now. You can

get better than that, but one eighteen with a total

of eight. And when I take a look at Will Warren,

I've talked in the past about I prefer him pitching

at home. But take a look at what the teams

that he has faced as of late offensively. Last time

out Detroit, Detroit's not been a good hitting team all

year long before that they played Boston Boston until the

last week or so, he's not been a good hitting

team before that. Cincinnati, they played Toronto twice and Toronto's

a team that's underperformed offensively for the better players. Cleveland,

the Athletics, Kansas City. He's had a lot of easy

games he's played, and you take a look at his

game scores, you got to go all the way back

to like May May twelfth against Baltimore, he had a

sixty three. Everything else has been lower thirty two and

thirty seven against Boston, Cincinnati, thirty six against Toronto. So

he's not pitching well. And when you look at Tampa Bay,

Tampa Bay in Division has been a terrific team over

the years when they're playing, when they're playing at home,

they are very good. And if you take a look

at the Yankees, the only thing that you could say

right now about the Yankees is the bullpen looks in

pretty good shape right now. That for tonight's game. But

Will Warren on the season is ranked fifty eighth overall

from a power rank over at Fangrabs. But he's won

thirty five the last two weeks. And none of the

Yankees pitchers really other than Schlitler. He had that one

bad outing where you give up four home runs, but

other than that, he's been terrific. But the rest of

the guys have struggled. Whether it's struggled, Cole has been

up and down. So I want to fade the Yankees

here with the Tampa Bay team that, as you mentioned,

off of a couple of losses. The Yankies are facing

a lefty, and Seymour is a guy that I like

better and better the more I see him. So I'm

going to play Tampa Bay and That'll be my part

of the parlay today.

Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on that. You know. I just

was doing some quick, quick math here, and it looks

like the Yankees this year. Again, don't don't quote me

on this, I just kind of did this very quickly

by hand. Looks like they're fourteen and seventeen without Aaron

Judge this year, which would fall right in line with

what they've been the last five years without him in

the lineup. That's about so again, per my very very

quick and not check math, that's about a four fifty

win percentage fourteen and seventeen, and since twenty twenty one,

it looks like they are fifty two and fifty nine

without Judge for sixty nine win percentage. Now, the interesting

thing here is because the Yankees during that stretch fourteen

and seventeen, they've won just enough to I think sort

of just like people kind of forget that Judge isn't there, right,

They've done just enough winning during that stretch to still

be taken seriously as the Yankees, but there's no question

when he's out of the line of thea're a worst bet.

And I don't think the books have sort of adjusted

enough over that period of time, So I do think

it's still relevant as much as as far as Ian

Seymour Brian, I'm with you. I liked Seymour a lot

better than more And this is a guy that twenty

twenty four and most of twenty twenty five when he

was at Triple A, was always way near the top

of my power ratings at Triple A. At one point

last year prior to being called up, he was number

one in my Triple A starting pitcher power ratings. What

happened was the Rays called him up and started using

him out of the bullpen. His major league debut actually

was I believe, out of the bullpen in the tenth

inning against the Red Sox, right and then they kind

of didn't have a spot room in the rotation, kind

of used him out of the bullpen a little bit,

sent him back down the Triple A. It was one

of those things where I don't think he could ever

really get comfortable last year because he was up, he

was down. He was in the bullpen, he was out

of the bullpen, he was spot start here and there.

So far this year really good. Not surprising to me

all of the you know, expected dra is really good.

Expected batting averages is two o seven. He gives up

fly balls. But again we've talked about this, that the trap.

Take a fly ball picture at the trap. It's not

course field. You know, we're not at souther Health. This

is a ballpark where you'll take a fly ball pitcher

any day of the week. I think he's better than

Warren and the Rays. The Warren is the type of

guy that the Rays can can sort of like a

thousand paper cuts right, like they can put the ball

in playoff of him. It's not a dominant guy like Schlitzler.

I like your your pick for the parlay, Brian. I

think the race win here as well. All right, Tokyo, Brandon,

Let's go back to the chat. Padres yesterday was my

play for the parlor, which did not get there. I know,

you hit, you hit your part. I think we would

have gone one and two in the parlay yesterday. But

the Padres was a no doubt loser, and so Lando

in the chat says Padres are going to get there,

get back. This would be in San Diego tonight, Diamondbacks Padres.

So to you do the Padres get it back here?

Do they bounce back with a winning game two of

the series.

Speaker 3: So I just did a little research while you were talking,

and I just pulled up the last ten worst team

in MLB the last ten games, the Padres. They have

thirty two runs, four and eighty three against and they

are one win and nine losses. That is awful. But

the thing about this team is there's such an enigma.

I mean, they've got such good names on their rosters,

so don't know how this happens. It's like one of

those things, how is this happening? Fortunately for them, they

go against Zach Allen today. He's been pretty awful. He's

only thirty years old. To me, it seems like he's

been in the league for thirty years, but obviously he

wasn't in the league when he was a baby. So

last time out, six earned, five earned, nine earned. That's

empty earned runs in his last three starts. That's just

really bad. It doesn't matter if it's home or away.

I think the Padres will get to him right now.

The Padres are favored, even though they haven't decided who

they're pitching. Usually when teams now, I don't have any

scoop information about what they're gonna do. Maybe you guys

can enlighten the crowd, But what's that Marquez was coming

back from the rol Oh Jr. Man Marquez, Okay, well

he probably won't go very deep. And right now, I

got the Padres bullpen rank dead last in MLB. Now,

I know talent wise, they're not the worst bullpen, but

they've just been performing awful. But we've made this point

on previous shows. When you're a losing team, you're not

exactly using your best arms out there because you're just

trying to end the game and go home. So don't

really know what to make of this, but I think

the Padres will score some runs here, So I might

think about a Padres team total over, whether it be

the first five or full game, although I haven't gotten

to it.

Speaker 1: Yeah I could. I could definitely see runs in this one,

you know, I knee jerk reaction for me, kind of

seeing how that played out last night and knowing that

the Padres were likely going to go with a couple

of righties today, which to come right back with the

Padres here against Zach Gallen. But yeah, you're probably looking

at Marquez coming off the IL for a period of time,

maybe Johnny Brido for a period of time. So it

is it does look like Brian like maybe a little

bit of a piggyback type situation with the Padres where

Marcus might go three or four, they might bring someone

else to go three or four. One thing I'll say

about Padres bullpen though, I mean at when they're like

this should be the best bullpen in the league, how

are they like you know that? That to me is

puzzling because they're high leverage guys are as good as

it gets. I'm inclined to run it back with the

Padres here, maybe even for the parlay. How are you

seeing this one?

Speaker 2: Yeah, very much to sim first thing I looked down

when I saw the pitching matchup is what's the total?

And the total you can get eight and a half

over twenty five or you can get nine under about

twenty three or something. But yeah, it's a higher scoring

game in San Diego, and that's what you would expect

with the Galleny and Marquez. Is it possible? I trust

Marquez more than Gallon. It may be. I mean, Gallen

just hasn't had it is TV mentioned his age. I

just assumed he was in his mid thirties or close

to it by this point, been around a long time.

I was kind of surprised they brought him back. I

thought they were going to let him go. But he's

been an innings eater for him, and I guess maybe

they need that a little bit. We know, Colorado brings

back ant eaters every single year just so they've got

somebody that can pitch. But yeah, it's I I San

Diego looked terrible last night, got behind early and never

never come around. I wish I could trust their up

their hitters a little bit more. But yeah, you would

think it'd been a higher scoring game. But I'm I'm

starting to get as much flummoxed as you guys are

with San Diego. I know TV's got bad luck with them,

and uh, yeah, they're a tough team to figure out.

Speaker 1: Yeah they really are. Because again, I still I'll say

I've said this on like basically every show that they

come up on. I still think that you're gonna see

the The talent they have on their team is proven talent.

It's guys that have that have won or that that

have been really good players throughout their careers. We're not

talking about like just like average players. We're talking about

all star caliber talent. Machado, Tatise, Jackson, Merrill, Bogarts, like

and these are all these are all guys that are

collectively underachieving. So like, I could I really think that

at some point in time, like let's say, like two

of these guys get going. Because again, the thing that's

important to note here is the Padres are hanging around

five hundred. I mean, they went into that Dodger Series,

I think five hundred. Now after the loss last night,

they're forty four and forty six. So it's not like

they've been terrible. It's not like they've played like badly,

you know what I mean, Like that's pretty average. Like

there's a lot of teams, like, just to just to

put something into perspective, there are teams that are forty

four and forty six and we're like, hey, this team's

playing pretty good baseball. It's just that it's the Padres

and we and everyone had such you know, higher expectations

for them that the forty four and forty six looks bad,

and yet they've gotten there with like with their team

massively underachieving. So I'm going to continue to look at

it the same way. The other thing I'm gonna look

at here, So I'm gonna use the part I'm gonna

go back with the Padres. That's gonna be my parlay

lake today. This is something that I may add for

clients if I get a slightly better number. I think

the only thing I was a little surprised at, guys,

was to see Padres get blown out last night and

then have to take a worse number than I could

have gotten yesterday. Right, Padres yesterday? Now it did move,

but it was minus one oh nine when we were

on the show yesterday. I think we probably used minus

one ten in the parlight. Today it comes out and

it's minus one twenty. So I was surprised to see

that sort of tax added in. Because I'll go back

to and TV. Did you want to jump back in here? Sorry?

Did you have something else to add? Earlier? I went

to Brian. They didn't know if you were going to add.

Speaker 3: No, no, no, I said, my piece. Manny Machado is

a great hitter, and he's hitting under two hundred. I

agree with you that the only way for the Padres

hitting to go is up though, but no, I don't

have anything to add.

Speaker 1: So I mean, listen, this is if there was an

ever a night where the Padres are going to break

down offensively, it has to be against Zach Gallen. He's

been terrible this year. His advanced metrics are as bad

as you're going to find in the league. The Padres

have seen him a ton. This should be a very

good matchup for the Padres. I don't know if this

is a great matchup for the Diamondbacks offensively, because yeah,

Marquees is someone that used to get bond and cores

and then got her and didn't have a great start

to his Padres career. But as I said yesterday, Arizona's

dead last in Major League Baseball in WRC plus against

right handed pitching. Now, they did get some offense going yesterday,

but here you're likely to see Marquez for three or four,

and I think it's going to be Johnny Brido for

three or four. Two righty's, two different looks, and then

if you do get to the late innings of this game,

you've got the Padres' best bullpen arms, which should be

the best in the league. So again, I think this

sets up nicely for the Padres if they can score

some off Gallon something I'm very strongly considering for my

clients today, and this will be my leg at the party.

So we've knocked two of them out real quick here

in the first two plays of the show. Everyone's always like, hey,

we need picks on the show. We came out hot

today with two, and again that might be one I add.

Keeping it if I do add that one so quick

promo for the site, I do have a four percent

play up on my page for five dollars. These guys

will have five dollars stuff as well for five dollars Tuesday.

If Padres makes my client card, I'm just going to

put that up on my free picks page at wager Talk.

So keep an eye every day. If you go to

wager talk website, there is a free picks tab and

you can see free picks from us and all the

other handicappers on the site. So keep an eye on

that as well. Someone's like, f the Padres their ass. Yeah,

they have been, listen, they absolutely have been, but we're

less concerned with what they've been and more concerned would

what they could be today or what they could eventually be.

And no question, Zach allen As equally deserves that tag

as well, So do what you will with that Tokyo

Brandon coming back to you a thousand sword says, first

of all, thank you for the donation, much appreciated, and

he's just Cubs Orioles over six and a half fades

that logo today. Do you agree or disagree Cubs Oriols

to you?

Speaker 3: Yeah? Again, it's five dollars Tuesday, guys, grab something for

five bucks. Everything's free or five dollars on wager talk

site except five percent plays. Most of us kappers won't

put a five percent play out today because it's hard

to sell it when everything's five dollars, So grab a

five dollars play. Yeah, this is an interesting one. Cubs.

Cubs have been really up and down. Don't know what

to make of this team, but looking at my numbers,

I love Matthew Boy's history against these Oriole batters very good.

Although his expected numbers are not great against this team,

He's been extremely solid where Bass has not been. Orioles

have a huge bullpen advantage though I got them ranked

six where I got the Cubs drink twenty two. This

is current form though this is not what it is.

This is just current form. But Cubs have the big

hitting advantage, so I think it's Cubs first five. I

think that would be a good play here because I

trust Boyd a lot more than daz In, who they're

facing today. So if I were to play this, he'd

be Cubs first five money line.

Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I might try to find a way

in with the Cubs here. I don't know if I'll

play this one either, but I do like your thought

process there. Brian Cubbs Orioles, how are you seeing this one?

Speaker 2: Yeah, Boyd the lefty against boz lariighty. We're looking at

Chicago at about a one twelve favorite nine and a

half to the under minus one twenty. Baltimore hasn't hit

lefties this year. They've only got an eighty nine. I

believe WRC plus on the season. Boyd being in the

National League, they don't see him very often, and I

liked the situation that TV talked about where he's got

pretty good numbers against him. I like Boyd and when

he Solfie I want to play him, but as this

pitch better than he did earlier in the season, So

both guys, I think I'll give a pretty good effort here.

But the toilet at nine and a half, this is

a better hitting ballpark this year. Obviously they move the

fences in and all, but that looks a little high

to me. At nine and a half. There's a couple

of nines out there, but nine and a half minus

one twenty is something I'm somewhat interested in because, as

we've seen before, the Cubs the offense. One day they

score ten, the next day they can score zero. They've

been very inconsistent. But I kind of like the Cubs

in this game. If I'm playing, I'm laying as heady covers.

What say? But boys the guy I'm looking for here

against a Baltimore team that hasn't hit lefties very well.

Speaker 1: Yeah, And also it's a Baltimore team that just isn't

isn't a great baseball team. Did you watch this team?

Like simple simple stuff out of this team? They really

fail in the execution department a lot of times. And

so you know, you look at these two teams just

forget where the game is being played. Forget who's pitching

for a second. Like when I look at the Cubs

and the Orioles, like to me, there's a reason. I

can find reasons why the Cubs are fifty and forty

and I can also find reasons why the Orioles are

forty two and forty nine. And yet here you are, Yes,

the games of Candon Yarns. Yes you have to worry

about Like okay, like is you know are the Cubs

They're going on the road, It's right before the All

Star break? Is it a bad is is it a

bad spot for them? Well, you know what, they didn't

play particularly well over the weekend against the Cardinals. Obviously

the seventeen to one loss is what sticks out there.

But then they came out the next day and got

shut out, So you know, this is it. It'll be

interesting to see how the Cubs play on this road trip.

Of course, they're going Baltimore to Cincinnati six games and

then they're going into the All Star Break. But like,

if the Cubs show up here, they're just a better

team than the Orioles. And I would prefer listen if

it big red flag. If the Rays give up on

you as a pitcher, okay, these days with what the

Rays do to do with pitching and what they're what

they've been able to do with Griffin Jacks, what they've

been able to do with the pitchers in their organization.

If they're giving up on a homegrown guy and they say, hey,

we're good, see you later. We've done all we can

at this point, big red flag. And that's kind of

how I feel about Shane Baz because they tried and

tried with him and eventually they were like, enough is enough,

go ahead, pawned him off on the Orioles and to me,

like they're just if they felt like he was fixable

or that they could get more out of him, I

think they would have kept him. So again, red flag

from you. With Baz. He's been a little bit better

of late, but it's not like he's been great since

showing up in Baltimore whips close to like one four.

You know, it's been better of late. Last time out

against the White Sox is pretty good, but again he's

still got some prioking numbers in their start before that

got hit hard by the Angels, more hit hard than

not this year. If you look at this and just

do the simple math comparable starting pitching. I think most

would say that the Cubs probably just bullpen's probably a

little bit deeper, a little bit better. Then you just

have these teams. Like, to me, the Cubs are just

a far superior team. Why would you not take them

at minus one to ten if your TV, even if

you think the pitching is comparable, why would you not

take them for the first five. It is a better

baseball team. So I'm with you, guys, I like the

Cubs as well. All Right, we're moving along today. Let's

go to Corey Johnson. Interesting game right here, Tokyo, Brandon,

I'm gonna come to you first leading White Sox or

Red Sox tonight. This is going to be totally you.

Noah Schultz, a couple of good young pitchers, and uh Chicago

playing decent ball this year. They've got the White Sox

at home. How are you seeing this one?

Speaker 3: Yeah? Hitting wise, White Sox have a have a bit

of an advantage here, got them ring twelve while I

have the Red Sox ring fifteen. So not a huge difference.

The big difference between these two teams right now in

current form is the White Sox bullpen playing much better

than the Red Sox bullpen. But then I have totally

ranked a lot higher than Noah Schultz. So one area

there's a big discrepancy, and then the last area they're

kind of even. Schultz is a guy I've wanted to

fade this season. He looks bad. Watched one of his games,

just doesn't look good. And it's not just the era,

just something something's not right. I think the I think

Boston's going to tee off on him. Again. Their lineup

is pretty mediocre, actually got them rank fifteen out of thirty,

but yeah, I think against a picture like this, they

can do some serious damage. Totally I think is better

than his numbers show pretty good picture. I don't know,

maybe Boston first five or a Boston team total over somehow,

I want, somehow, I'll try to piece together something where

I can fade Schultz because I just don't like what

I say.

Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair, Brian, I'll come to you

like no Noah Schultz. I would say. Both of these

guys we were sort of like similarly touted coming out

of their respective organizations. Of course, the Red Sox made

the move to totally last year when they were trying

to make the playoffs, and that was sort of like

their big statement, right, like we're gonna get the We're

gonna get Connie early and totally up, and we're gonna

ride these young guys and see if we can get

it into the playoffs. Excuse me, get him into the playoffs.

Whereas the White Sox far more conservative with Noah Schultz.

Remember Noah Schultz a first rounder twenty twenty two draft,

first round pick, a southpaw. They protected him a little

bit more on the minor league level. I also don't

think he teared through the minor leagues the way Totally did.

And he kind of got up this year.

Speaker 2: Brian.

Speaker 1: If you remember, they had a day it was like

Noah Schultz Day and it was like a big deal

when he was about to debut TV. I'm with you,

I haven't been as impressed as I think that, you know.

I maybe they build him to be And I'm still

a little bit higher on Totally than Schultz as well.

So leed Red Sox for me, Brian, how are you

seeing Red Sox White Sox?

Speaker 2: Yeah, Red Sox about a one twenty one, one twenty

two favorite, totally eight and a half to the under.

Both teams have hit lefties pretty well this year. I

totally's been more proven, no doubt about it. Schultz just

has not been there. And you mentioned I remember when

they brought him up and that was the big deal.

He was the big guy coming up, and he has

not performed well as of yet, and until he does,

I don't know if I want to back him. I

do like playing lefties. There's a lot of lefties going

on today's card in Major League Baseball, so I think

we're going to see some advantages in that. But these

two teams happen to hit lefties pretty well. As I mentioned,

from an offensive standpoint, I like both offenses. They both

got some younger players in it, and I don't like tsee.

I think they're gonna get to Schultz a little bit here.

So the line seems to be about where I would

make it, So I'm not seeing any advantage there. But

keep in mind, uh, the White Sox just played that

big series against Cleveland for the first place in the division.

When was the last time the White Sox had played

many meaningful games this deep into the season, So it

could be a little bit of a letdown here. Boston

as a team used to playing meaningful games. And I

think they're getting a little bit of confidence here, so

slightly inherent with Boston, but I don't think I'm gonna

get there.

Speaker 1: Yeah. And the other thing here is, like the Red

the Red Sox don't exactly have the luxury of like

just coasting into the All Star rate. They played so

poorly to start the season that they need they do

need to make up for lost time. And the final

thing I'll say, just in support of like the Red

Sox is again, this is a This is another one

that I am considering today. I haven't I haven't bet

it yet, but it's certainly certainly on my radar. Noah

Schultz has the look like if you're an old school

baseball guy, he's got the look of like you you

see him and TV like back in your scouting days,

you would have saw Noah Schaltz have been like, yeah,

that's a first round or right, there's six' ten lefty throws,

hard throws like ninety six miles an. Hour he's just

got the look of a guy that you, would you,

Know Randy johnson, esque, right like six' ten left he

throws hard when when you look at the underlying stuff

at the big league level this year. Not great expect

the eras five. Point fifty he's getting very little swing.

And miss, he's wild so it's like he's getting very

little swing and miss and guys aren't chasing out of

the zone on him because he's not. Super consistent he

doesn't pound, the zone so he's not super consistent in.

The zone, to me, that's like, you know maybe they

maybe maybe they were right to be a little bit

more conservative with him at the minor, league level and

maybe he actually needed more time, down there because in,

my opinion he's got some command issues that really need

to be ironed out before he's going to be really

good at the big. League levels if you guys remember

totally kind of did. That right he he, got up

got to taste the. BIG leagues i think they sent

him back for a little bit to work on, some

stuff and now he. Looks great he. Looks great all

of his expected metrics are really good so far. This

year one one, two whip three point three NINE E

A red sox need this game AND more i talk,

about it THE more i Like The red. Sox here

this might end up On my this might end up on,

my car GO.

Speaker 3: Ahead tv just a quick point ten second. Point here

as as, a scout you do look at the, guy's

BODY and i don't mean that in, a weird you.

Know way you got to have a, baseball body, you

know you can't be like this guy who slouches over

and like really tiny. And stuff so there's two types

of BODIES that, i like and one is the hulking

kind of, burly guy and then the other Is the,

darvish type like a rubber. Band guy. You know darvish

is like a human. Rubber band he just whips. It

out ANOTHER point i want to make is pitching is

not just, good stuff but it's. It's mental how you

use your pitches is. Very important that's four twenty percent

of if you're a good picture or not is how

you use. Your picture so you have to have, good

stuff but you have to use it right. As well

so just a couple of. Points there so he might have,

good stuff he's just not using. It, Right, Possibly.

Speaker 1: Yeah and this is this is also why you see

guys that are not that stature fall and then become

sort of diamonds in, the, rough right because that is how.

They're evaluated but remember this teams or organizations have a

hard time being honest with themselves when it's a guy

they drafted like, tenth overall first, round pick and some

of these organizations will they will square peg into the

round hole with some of, these guys because if, they

don't someone has to admit they. Messed, up right someone

in the organization is going to have to admit they. Messed,

Up now i'm not saying they messed Up With noah schultz,

At all BUT do i think maybe he probably needs

more time in the miners and he's a little bit

behind schedule at this point for a. First, ROUNDER yeah.

I do and if they're going to continue to run

him out here and he's going to continue to pitch

the way, he's pitching he's probably going to be a

GOOD faith i think he's a good. Faith tonight, all

right back to. The chat let's go back to the.

Chat here let's see here's a.

Speaker 2: Good.

Speaker 1: One couple people want To. Talk marlins this is a

very very, interesting Game The Marlins. Tokyo grid you talked

about your generational Cover. On sunday playing Against the marlins

eight Nothing Lead juri perez is a, perfect game and

somehow you sneak out with the money with a plus

one and a half bet and a game that finishes nine.

To eight that, being said they still pulled off the

sweep in. That Series the marlins have played as good

as Anyone since, june first but now they take on

a TEAM that i think a lot of us thought

coming into the year was a lot better Than. The,

marlins that's, of Course. The mariners and we have a

very interesting pitching matchup here with two GUYS that. I

like so talk to Me About? Marlins mariners do you

have a winner in?

Speaker 3: THIS?

Speaker 1: One tv.

Speaker 3: Nothing's a lot, Sports BETTING but i really Liked the,

marlins Today and i'll tell. You why brian wu. Great

picture matter, OF fact i thought he was the best

number three guy in ANY rotation mlb. Last year but

he struggles on, the road and there's just no way.

Around it he's got probably the biggest home road discrepancy

Of All Major league. Baseball starters Two ten era at

home in, a six three eight on, the road and

you can't. IGNORE that I understand era is not the

the tel, all statistic but you just can't. Ignore that

he doesn't have a history against. These Guys but i've

Got Man Miami miami's they're gonna be a. Playoff team.

Holy cow both of these guys have. Good command neither

one of them are. Walking PEOPLE but i just don't

Know Why brian wu can't put it together on. The

road he was like this last. YEAR too I remember

i backed him last year Against the yankees and he

just got Crushed In. New york and you don't expect

That from MoU because he's a really. Good picture BUT

actually I Got maxi meyer ranked higher, than him about three. Points.

HIGHER bullpens i have them, pretty equal, But man seattle just.

Can't hit they did put up eleven runs the, other

day but aside from, that game they're one of the

lowest scoring TEAMS. IN mlb i got them ranked twenty

one out. OF thirty I got miami. Ranked two so

Give me. Miami here there's a couple of ways you could.

APPROACH this i don't know if moneyline is the best

way to, approach it But definitely MIAMI somehow i want to,

back THEM and i also Think a seattle team total

under would also. Be good there's one red flag, there

though because for, some Reason, on tuesdays the scores seemed

to be. REALLY high i don't know if one of

you guys can shed some light, on That but i'm

very nervous to bet unders On a tuesday for some.

Odd reason but those are SOME ways i would. APPROACH it.

Speaker 1: I got NOTHING that.

Speaker 2: I will i will say team offenses performed better when

they have a, day off and a lot of times On,

a monday teams get, days off so it makes sense.

TO me i don't know the. Actual numbers i'm in

agreement when it comes to. This game if you Take

it brian wu his home many rays and the Twos

Is rody rays and. The, sixes obviously era doesn't, mean

everything but if you take a look at the, outlying

numbers it's clear that he's not the same pitcher at

home as he is on. The road he's given up

i think two home runs on the season at home

seven when he goes on. THE road i will Say

that seattle bullpen's in really good shape, for tonight and

they may have to go to. THAT earlier i do

LIKE their i do like. Their bullpen, Right now they've, got, one, two.

Three four the top five guys are all within the top,

one hundred so they're bullpen's pitching. Very WELL and i

Like this, Miami team and obviously we've talked about this in.

The past we'd like the young hitters that. They have.

They're maintaining they're not they don't hit for a lot,

of power but they're maintaining getting. On base we look

take a look at the last seven Days. For miami

these are all guys hitting in the top. One hundred hicks,

Twenty nine, Stours eleven, Lopez five, Edwards nineteen mac, Eighty

three signoia. Twenty one they're hitting very well, right now

and they're going up against the guy who doesn't pitch

well on. The road they're a pullpen also is a pretty.

Good shape fairbanks is the only pitched once. This WEEK

although I think fairbanks his best days are. BEHIND him

i can't stay healthy and he's not being very impressive.

To me but they've got other guys in, the BULLPEN

and i REALLY like I Think michael peterson will eventually become. Their.

CLOSER eventually i like what. He does, but yeah, for

me when you take a look at a game and

it's basically somewhat of a. Pick them You got miami

at about fourteen, or whatever the total. OF eight I.

LIKE miami i think this is a good spot for

them And The. BRIAN wu a lot a lot of

people just see the overall Numbers. For seattle that's why

they always Rank the seattle pitchers so much higher than

what they. Should be is because their eras, are good

because they pitch in a really good. Pictures part but

when they going on, the ROAD like, i said seven

home runs on the road to. AT home I like

miami in. THIS game.

Speaker 1: I like. THE under i kind of thought this would

be seven and. A half i'm just sort of here

looking at my numbers And it's i'm on the other side.

Speaker 4: OF seven i just want to go back to that

game and get. It, Exactly yeah I'm at i'm at

seven point eight for. A total, so again like you're

gonna this is one where, IT'S like i, DON'T know

I feel i feel like, you KNOW yesterday i kind

of talked about In The yankees, RAIS game i, was,

Like man i'm surprised they didn't force you to take an.

Under seven there is what was my comment from me.

Yesterday's show i'm kind of surprised they're not four you

to take it under seven and a.

Speaker 1: Half here it feels like you're getting a little extra

value with. That run be with that being an, UNDER

eight i expect both these pitchers to. Pitch well I'm

still i'm still probably Higher On brian wu than maybe.

MOST star i know he had a couple of blow

up starts this year that really kind of have skewed his.

Overall numbers that era is north, of four which for

him during his career is a little, bit shocking just

because of how strong he had been in his career

at the big league level up to. That point the

last time out six and, a third, five strikeouts, two

runs felt like he pitched well two starts prior, to

that seven shutout innings Against, the orioles. Nine strikeouts he

certainly got it. In HIM AND i, i mean we've

Talked About max meyer on this show pretty much every time,

he pitches and it's. Always glowing he's as good as.

It GETS so i like. Both. Bullpens listen even Though

the marlins had a near blow Up, on sunday part

of the reason that happened was they were they, were,

like okay it's, eight nothing as is that ninety? Two

pitches we'd prefer to not gas amount if we don't.

Need to and they kind of try to go with

some of their like mop, up guys And the a's

got some hits and they put themselves in a little

bit of, a spot but they had Yesterday off Bullpens

Rested mariner's. BULLPENS rested i think this is a low,

scoring GAME and I can't i can't talk to you

guys Off, the marlins because that is THE way i

lean if you forced me to pick, a side but,

for me it would be.

Speaker 3: Under eight as a matter, of FACT when i looked over,

THIS game i do IT before i look at, the

NUMBERS and i, was, thinking Man if seattle is four and,

A half i'm gonna, smash that but unfortunately they were

three and. A half so, all.

Speaker 1: Right let's Go to first, of, all, again guys thank

you for. The donations all the donations to the show

do go. To charity our home office works for a

couple of different ones and all of these get donated,

to charity and so we very much. Appreciate That wager

talk very much, appreciates that and we'll try to get

the games that you're asking for attached to the donation into. The,

show yeah we got a double, header Today so i'm

gonna just sort of throw this out, To. You brian

i'll let you kick. This off you don't have to talk.

Both games is there a way into The Doubleheader brewers

cardinals in either game One or game two?

Speaker 2: For you no comment on this because we don't know

who's going to, be PITCHING and I KNOW dobbins i

believe is going to pitch one of the Games For.

Saint louis don't know which, one yet so it's too

much in for too many question marks at this point

to make any comments.

Speaker 1: On This, So, TOKYO brandon i do think it's going

To be miserawski in the. Day game that's that's something

that looks to be sort of confirmed at. This point,

But yeah brian, is Right, the cardinals they could Go.

WITH dobbins i think McGreevy could. Potentially PITCH so I

guess i'll throw my quick comments out just to just

to give freebird, something Here and i'll let you follow up.

FOR me I would i would love to find a

way to Play the cardinals at some. Point today now

Going against miserroski is a little bit. More difficult i'd

be interested to see Who the cardinals put up. AGAINST

him i think if it's, YOU know i think, FOR

me i almost am going to go into this, and

say Hopefully the Brewers get game One with miserawski on.

The mound he's not the GUY that i really want

to go against, right now BUT what i will hope

for And, So freebert i'll give you a little bit

of an idea Of what i'm. Looking For what i'm.

Hoping for give me A close Brewers winning, game one

because that will mean that they've won like three, close

games that their bullpen is. PRETTY cooked i Played the Brewers.

ON sunday i. Gotta win they needed every bit of

that bullpen to get that three to two win Against. The,

diamondbacks yesterday they, come out it's a four to. Three

game McGill. Pitches Again chad Patrick and drohan kind of

saved him a little, bit yesterday but you'll still have, you,

know Like what i'm hoping Is maybe ariba gets in

the first game and now suddenly they're going into the

nightcap of the doubleheader without some of their top. Bullpen

arms that if that's, The case i'm Taking the Cardinals

in game two or at least going to very strongly consider.

Doing THAT, so tv any comments to close us out's

pardinals the double header for, You.

Speaker 3: Today yeah just some, betting advice and guys who have

been betting for a, long time like my colleagues here,

and myself will tell you that you never, say never

but we, will never almost never bet game two of

a doubleheader because we don't know what's going to happen in.

GAME one i will sometimes bet game ONE if I if,

i know and if you guys know me. BY now

i DON'T like x factors. In games there are quite

a LOT of x, factors here but there's one thing

that's NOT an, x factor Which is misowski and how

he Pitches Against. Saint Louis saint louis surprisingly is hitting

really well right now and got him in the, top

ten Got the brewers. Very meatocre but, you know a

great pitcher always can neutralize. Good HITTING and i Think

A saint louis team total under might be a good

play here if you can get a three and. A

half i don't see anything wrong. With that misowski had

a bad game his last, time out but like we

at the top of, the show elite Pictures and i'm

talking like, top ten top. Fifteen guys i'm, not talking,

you Know Like matthew boyd. Type guys i'm Talking like

misowski type Pictures and wheeler and these kind. Of guys

when they have a, bad game they almost always. Bounce

BACK so i think. He will Uh So saint LOUIS

under i think would be a good play in game

one and avoid. Game two.

Speaker 1: Oh see so here's, The, Thing like i'm all about

betting game two of, double HEADERS but i have to

see what happens in game. ONE first i can't bet

a game TWO until i watch. Game one And what

i'm telling you here, right Now what i'm. Watching for

give me A close. Brewers win give me A close

brewers win Where, at miserrowski, you know, like Yeah Te,

toky brandon a low, scoring game woul would help. The cause.

Give it give it to me like four, to two have,

a rebake come in and get. To save and Suddenly

the brewers are in. Game two Maybe It's robert gasser on,

The mound maybe they go opener in front, of someone

and suddenly they're gonna need to piece it together with like, the, three,

four five and six options and. Their bullpen if it comes,

to that that's the SCENARIO where I think i would

really Like the cardinals at home, if that if that becomes.

Speaker 3: The case relief pitchers hate doubleheaders because they're doing nothing

almost the. Whole time it's like an entire day of.

Doing nothing it's like being. In jail, oh yeah.

Speaker 1: If you're if you're at a reliever and you're not

getting in until, game two you kind of have to

keep yourself like like ready some capacity for like a.

Full deck they.

Speaker 3: Hate it they, hate, It TRUE.

Speaker 1: Brent tv that's a. Great point you don't mind if

you're pitching in game one because, it's like well then

you probably get to just kick you put the, slides

on kick your. Feet up in, game two you probably

know you're not pitching. Very rarely every once in a

while you'll. See it guy'll pitch. Game one they.

Speaker 3: Hate, it, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1: Yeah that's a good that's a really. Good point, But

yeah cardinals in game two will. EITHER way, i LOOK

if i get the game ONE that, I, Want brian

i'm coming. To you we can squeeze. Another one get the,

donations flow and then we got to get. These In

alex Rand says. Guardians, twins uh do you have an

opinion in? This one these Are Your cleveland guardians on the.

Speaker 2: Road, here yeah wins. Against lefties minnesota's got an eighty

nine w or city plus on the season as opposed

to one to twelve. VERSUS righties I Like, joey Cantillo

But tys bradley other than a couple of, bad starts

he's having a. Terrific season we're looking at basically a

maybe a one point Fifteen on minnesota with a total

of eight and. A half This is i've been looking

at this game a lot TODAY and i think. THE

line i think the line is probably correct in. THIS

one i Do like katina a little bit Better, in

Bradley but minnesota's got clearly better hitters at. This point

cleveland's hit Better since ramirez is OUT than i thought,

they would and they're still like a run less. Per

game so there's they just don't have enough power on

this team in. That regard they Brought, up ingle who

was really. Excited about he is. Blown up he's got

like one hit since they brought. Him up they put

him in. Left field he's a terrible left fielder because

he's only played left field just to get into the Lineup.

In cleveland it would not surprise me if he gets

sent down After The all star break here and they

decide to do. Something else, but Yeah the cleveland's given to.

The credit they're trying to get some hitters. UP here

i don't Know why ralphie is still down in. The

miners they need to bring. Him up he's, Their Future.

Ralphie vasquez so we'll see what Happens with cleveland after.

THE break i did. Hear that ramirez said just the

other day that he's going to see everybody in, Three

weeks so he's probably going to be back the second

week After The all. Star break one week is, everybody's

off so that. Helps him so there'll be a different

TEAM when i get. Him back but, RIGHT now i

don't Trust the, cleveland bats and so maybe three eight

and a half to the under might be a. Decent

BET but i can't. GET there i can't find a

way to play. This, One yeah i'm kind of.

Speaker 1: With you this was this WAS one i kind of.

LOOKED at i thought the line was spot on and

really just a very, good game pretty. Pretty competitive i'm Kind, Of.

Tokyo brandon i'm kind of finding redeeming qualities on both

sides and THEN things i don't like about. Both sides

so kind of an easy pass for Me Anything guardians twins.

For you.

Speaker 3: Not really i'm not going to bet this game because,

the book the books. Nailed it and we're not betting

games because we're fans. Of teams we're not betting games

because we like this. And that we're betting games because

we can find kind of an advantage where the lines.

Are OFF and i agree with both of you guys the.

Lines on let me say one Thing About. TODs BRADLEY

though i, love him he he is the ultimate. Innings

eater he's, not flashy but he never gets like, blown

up and he always stays out there for five or.

Six innings he's the the ultimate innings eater in. My

book if you look in the dictionary, INNINGS eater i

think he would. COME up I Love, taj bradley but,

uh yeah not much on. This game i'm not going to.

Bet it sorry to disappoint the COMMENT.

Speaker 1: Or CEB before i come back to you for, your,

PARLAY leg i think you make a, good point and

So like i'll go to The Chat russell russell, dex

says isn't their Value? On cleveland twins aren't doing. MUCH

offensively i think what puts me off Of playing Cleveland

Is toash bradley because he's kind of the. One guy

he's kind of the one starter, right now well Other Than,

joe ryan which is like, the obvious But like bradley's

kind of a GUY that i think is you think

he's a really PRETTY good mlb starter that sometimes gets

lost in, the shuffle that that sometimes the books will

give you decent. Prices ON but i can't play him

HERE because i kind Of like cantillo. As well so

that's kind OF the i guess THE point i was

trying to MAKE is i see redeeming qualities for. BOTH

pitchers i don't love either bullpen enough to take an

under certainly don't Love the twins. Relief situation so, it's

yeah just a, tough game and on a sixteen, GAME

slate i think we outline some Better, Ones, tokyo brandon

though we need your pick for. The parlay where are

you gonna go to close this?

Speaker 3: Parlay OUT so i just saw someone in the chat asking.

For it i'm gonna Cheat and i'm gonna Take the

DODGERS because I, love, robelski UH and i do Not,

like LORENZ and i know it's minus. TWO seventy i

would not put this out for my clients as a play,

to sell but for a one leg of a three,

LEG parlay i think minus. Two, eighties Okay so i'm gonna.

Do it let me make some comments about. Yesterday's game,

you Know The Dodgers tamner scott looks Bad and dodgers

got lucky to eke out, that win and that's kind

of soul crushing for the. Other team colorado does have a,

good lineup, But uh dodgers lineup. Is better so given

the Fact that robelski is a better Picture, than Lorenz

and robelski is at home and he has great Stats,

AGAINST colorado i Don't see colorado. Winning this so That's

what i'll do with my.

Speaker 1: Parlay, leg brian WHAT'S the i think you're actually getting

more like two sixty two sixty five on THIS AND

tv i don't disagree. WITH you i THINK they're i

Think the dodgers Probably destroy lorenz. In Here the Ken

the rocky is scoring enough to keep pace again to

squeak out a one. RUN loss i. Don't know they

were down sixty three last fight and sort of magically

got back into. THAT Game i i'm kind of, WITH.

YOU tv i Think the dodgers this is this feels

like a spot where they play well and if they're

if their bats are cooking Against the wrens and they're

gonna score in double, digit, Runs, probably brian what are

you looking?

Speaker 2: At Here they're they're about a two seventy favorite. Right

now colorado has been in. This situation how many times

over the years were they're winning, that game they think

they got to win and then the bullpen. Blows it

it's it's more of the Same. For colorado it's not

like some other team that you expect. It to this

is like, growing Up the yankees could be down eight

to nothing in the. Fifth inning they're none out of.

The game that's the Way the. Dodgers Are the dodgers

are a team that takes a lot to put. Them

away you'll get a game that they just don't show

up For like philadelphia. Did yesterday the teams, have that

but on a day to, day Basis the dodgers are

the way. To GO but i will bounce back a

little bit ABOUT with tv because He Hates. Tanner Scott

tanner scott has ranked it's the eighth best relief pitcher

in baseball. This year he hasn't been. Great lately he

blew the same. Last night, but overall you take a

look at, his NUMBERS his era is less, than three

his his whip is less. Than one that's a good reliever.

For ME and i do have to Say That avaan

phillips just came back FROM the al gives them another

solid arm in that bullpen. They've Got the dodgers' bullpen is.

Really good, so yeah it's it's similar To the philadelphia.

GAME yesterday i can't see how it's. Gonna lose but.

Speaker 3: Going to now And, will, yeah.

Speaker 1: Listen you GUYS know i LIKE my i Love my

rockies plus one and. A half when the spot. Is

good yesterday it got. There somehow don't know how that quite,

got there but. It did this is this is not.

A spot i would make. That Bet michael lorenzen is

as bad as a starting pitcher as you're going to

find a major League baseball he's got a six nine TO,

one era but all the expected numbers suggest that that's

an accurate result. FOR him a one eight one whip

is like borderline criminal for a big league, starting pitcher,

like you you should you should not be starting Games

In Major League, baseball Colorado even colorado with a one

eight one whip this far into, the, season again doesn't

get any swing. And miss he's not going to strike.

Anyone out he's giving up hard contact at as high

of a rate of any starting pitcher in. The majors,

like again anything. Can HAPPEN and i love the fact

That the rockies play hard on a on a night

in a. Night out basis credit. To them they seem to.

Never quit they are a bunch of young guys that.

Play hard but tell me how the dog If the

dodgers even care and ounce about this game that they

aren't putting up a ten spot here like and, the

okay so you're gonna get another ten to NINE. Final

tv i'm KIND of i kind. OF LISTEN i i

don't like laying one and a half with with the.

Home team my, gut says this is like Eleven four

dodgers something.

Speaker 3: Like that so let me just make a very. QUICK

point i know we're, running late but the difference between

elite teams and. Bad teams is the fact that bad

teams they need their stars to produce to win, a

game where a team Like, the dodgers they can get

Production From, tommy edmund they can get production from eight.

Nine six this is the difference between good teams about

and The reason philadelphia was struggling because they only have

three good players, pretty much so just a, Little.

Speaker 1: Yeah dodgers have no shortage of. Really players, so Look

It's oklahoma cities line. Up there there are some big

league teams that might trade Lineups With oklahoma city, right

now which Is The DODGERS triple. A team so that's

how many good big leaguers are just waiting in the wings.

Down there they, haven't him they haven't even On Leash,

james timms the third on. You guys yet he'll be

he'll he'll have his chance at. Some point pretty much

a best Hitter in Minor league baseball, this year or

at least one of the. Top three so, uh yeah

good discussion today when a little bit longer got you

guys an. Extra game, of course you can help us

out by the fact that it's Five dollars tuesday and

we've got plays in each of our on each of

our pages for sale for just. Five dollars i've got

a four. Percenter up the other guys will have plays up,

as well and every handicapper on. The site listen if

you're if you're still Doing The world. Cup Thing car

mine's been hotter than the Sun In world. Cup soccer

there's a there's a bunch of guys on the site

that have done really well In The. World cup Two

More world cup, matches today so a lot of good

stuff to check out on The wager talk, site today

and the three of us are going to try to

bounce back and cash a, three, teamer which even with,

yesterday's loss still five point five to two units on

the parlay. This Season brian leonard's Going with rays minus.

One eighteen i'm gonna Go with padres minus one Twenty

And tokyo braden Is putting dodgers minus two seventy. In

there that's three full game. Money lines We're, Going Dodgers.

Rays padres that's the three teamer, today again Five dollars

tuesday At. Wager talk check out our respective pages for

best bets for just, five dollars and the three of

us will be back in the morning Nine am eastern

for more. Total bases we'll see you guys then