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0:00 - Tuesday Recap
3:45 - Phillies/Reds
11:38 - Diamondbacks/Padres
19:33 - Blue Jays/Giants
26:53 - Rockies/Dodgers
35:11 - Braves/Pirates
41:40 - Red Sox/White Sox
47:19 - Parlay of the Day
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total basis.
It is Wednesday. I'm still kind of in the dark
here in the middle. That'll be fixed tomorrow. I got
a new laptop. I love it, but I'm still playing
around with the settings and this camera. For whatever reason,
I'm darker. So back to the old camera tomorrow. But
I had to buy a little input for it. So
you're gonna have to deal with an oddly colored trig
in the middle, kind of in the dark, kind of not.
Hopefully it's not ruining the show for you guys. The
point of the show, though, is to bring good info.
I think we did that for the most part. Yesterday
I had a pretty good day. I went to and Oh,
won both of my both my baseball plays had the raise.
Brian Leonard, I know you gave out the rays on
the show. I hope that made your card. And how
is your Tuesday night?
Speaker 2: I couldn't ask for anything better. At three and Oh,
and I won my free play I had Miami. I
thought it was in really good shape, and then they
were actually losing the bottom of the ninth inning. I
thought they were going to blow that. Luckily enough, they
came back, so we were able to sweep. But yeah,
a real something. That wasn't a game that we're sweating
all of a sudden, we were sweating.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was a crazy game. Glad you got the
walk off. I see oho one hundred k s as
Marcie for the game winner. Yeah, that was pretty awesome.
Always great to get out of extra innings, getting one
going in your way, going your way. I feel like
I've had more extra innings go against me this year
than have gone my way. But Tokyo, Brandon, how did
your Tuesday night go? Hopefully a sweep for you as well.
Speaker 3: Not quite as sweep. I was on the precipice of
going three and one until the Dodgers decided to drop
the ball two times and give that game away. Funny,
let me just take a minute. I was listening to
the radio broadcast with Rick Monday, and he mentioned a
really interesting statistic about the color of Rockies. They are
number one in Major League Baseball in scoring in the
eighth and ninth innings of baseball games. That's just a
crazy stat It blew my mind, but interesting.
Speaker 2: A lot of such though. If you realize Colorado the
worst team in baseball. The other teament doesn't have to
use their closer on them, so they're using the middle relievers.
So that's why that's the case.
Speaker 3: They score more than any other team in the eighth
and ninth innings combined. Because so, yeah, interesting stat but
I went to and too, and then I just won
a four percent on Dusan and KBO and lost a
small ones, so kind of breaking even. It's a little frustrating.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great point, and that was going to
be my answer as well, Brian. They face a lot
of mop up relievers. They're usually not in as many
of these games. But to the Rockies credit, they're playing
extremely well this year. I did not I didn't think
they were going to come back and win last night,
but they have. They don't quit, you know what. They
maybe lack some other areas. They this team does not quit,
and I think it'll help the Rockies down the road.
Still probably a sixty win team at sixty sixty five
win team at absolute best this year, but it'll help
them down the road. All Right, the live chat is
filling up. We're gonna start with It's a national TV
doubleheader on ESPN. That's what I remember from growing up.
I if you grew up as a kid in the
early nineties, your chance to watch out of market games
was always the Wednesday night ESPN doubleheader. I always used
to get yelled at from my parents because I wanted
to stay up and watch that ten pm Eastern game
that they always had here on the East Coast. I know,
Brian Leonard will tell me that the West Coast is
better for sports watching. I don't know. I used to
love staying up to watch that ten pm Eastern West
Coast start. We're gonna start with the early one today though.
This is the Phillies. They're gonna take on the Reds.
We know who's pitching for the Reds. He's one of
the most exciting pitchers in Major League Baseball right now.
Exciting young guys in Chase Burns. The Phillies maybe not
so much. Does it even matter here, Brian, you care
who's opposing Chase Burns in this game?
Speaker 2: Obviously the linesmaker doesn't, because a lot of them already
have lines up on the game. They've got Burns about
a one forty two favorite with a total of nine
to the over against undecided. So it may you see
this a lot and a lot of the Sharper books
won't put anything up, but a lot of the public
books will. They know they've got a better idea of
who's going to be in this game than we do
at this point. So it's it's tougher to bet into
those early games because they're most of the time they're
they're in pretty good shape. But yeah, Cincinnati dead last
in Major League Baseball on WRC plush Burns on the model,
and Burns is obviously an elite pitcher, elite strikeout pitcher.
He's been his TV's points out I think every time.
He has been very consistent all season long. Going against
this Philadelphia team who's is a underdog at this time,
and the Philadelphia's playing really good ball lately, but it's
rarely that you're going to get plus money by playing them,
especially when Schwarber's is hot, Asia's hitting those homers. So yeah,
I'm not gonna without knowing who's going to pitch for Philadelphia.
I didn't give this when a second look until the
lines up, lineups come out and everything's an evening game
except for Toronto San Francisco. That's that's about a one
o'clock eastern start. That's your early play but other or not,
everything's the night, so we've got no reason to rush
in without knowing who's going to be pitching for Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: So, Tokyo Brandon, I think it's going to be a
gentleman by the name of Chuck King. I think that's
who's likely going for Philly. He is a guy that
I've seen a few times for Lehigh Valley. He's not
a highly touted prospect. He's twenty eight years old. I
do have a buddy that went to TCU and follows
TCU baseball very closely. That's where he went to college.
I do believe this will be his major league debut,
and numbers are not overly impressive at the minor league level,
So I'm not sure really that. Like I said, I
don't know if he's going to be out there for
three innings for five. He's been starting games for Lee
High Valley. Tokyo Brandon doesn't matter. Are we just taking
Chase Burns and the Reds here to get it done
at home? Seems like kind of a fair price.
Speaker 3: You guys know how I feel about X factors, and
that's definitely an X factor today. When a guy's making
his debut as I always say he could come out
and throw five shutout innings or he could come out
and get blown up. So I really don't know what
to expect there. But what I do know is the
Reds are hitting twenty fifth out of thirty in current
form and the Phillies are hitting eleven. So anytime you
get the superior pitcher going against the better lineup, it
always makes me want to lean towards an under. So
if you're dying to bet this game, I think under
would probably be the way to go. But you know,
I would rather make an educated hypothesis on my money
rather than guess and gamble, so I'll probably stay away
from this one, but I would lean to an under
if I had to bet it.
Speaker 1: I think I'd be pretty comfortable taking the Reds here.
I like, again, I don't I thought that this would
have been a much bigger Well, Brian, what do you
say it is like minus one forty something? Minus one? Yeah,
Like I would have expected the books to tax Burns
against an unknown a little bit more. I think the
point I'll make here is this is not a prospect.
That this is not like some kid with a live
arm that's like gonna be a star at some point.
This is a twenty eight year old journeyman guy. He's
been in you know, he's been in the minors for years,
played four years of college baseball career era and the
miners is like four forty less than a strikeout per inning.
Seem seems like a guy to me when I watch
I watch a ton of Triple A baseball. These are
the types of guys that become your sort of Triple
A innings Zeter type guys. They hang around, they're reliable,
they don't get hurt. They can go in and throw
six innings, five innings in a Triple A game and
not get killed. That that's kind of what Chuck King
is here for me. Like, I was surprised to see
him in the spot because he just didn't seem like
a guy that they would call up. But my guess
is couple of things. One, they probably want to give
him some MLB service time, give him a debut. Two,
he it's we're going into the All Star breaks, so
they're probably looking at, you know, maybe getting some other guys,
not not burning them out with a start here having
to call them up. Everyone's about to get a week
off and three the guy that's down there that would
take this rotation spot, Andrew Paynter, is working on some
some mechanical stuff, so he's not gonna They're not gonna
bring him back up when the whole point of sending
him down was to fix his mechanics. So this is
sort of a weird situation where I think you're getting
a chance to fade a truly a triple A R
at the big league level, and you're getting Chase Burns
and he's at home and you only have to pay
a dollar forty. I mean, this seems like a pretty
good opportunity to back the Reds in my opinion. So
I look at the Reds here. I wouldn't be surprised
if once this gets announced, this might be minus one eighty.
You might be getting some value right now with minus
one forty, I can't see that staying there.
Speaker 2: What do you think about the team total four and
a half over one twenty.
Speaker 1: So I'd be curious to see how long they keep
him in. But like he has been a it's not
like he's a reliever, Like he is a starter. He
starts every you know, every fifth day for Lei Valley.
He starts his last couple outings, and the Miners have
been five, six, seven innings, so if the whole you know,
I don't think the Phillies are just gonna like go
to the bullpen early here so that you might get
a team total over again, like anything can happen. Like
TV says, he comes up, he's jacked up, he gets
a couple outs early, and maybe he pitches well, but
is he gonna outpitch Chase Burns. I don't know, probably not.
I kind of lean toward the Reds. Yeah, this is
I don't Brian, I kind of dodged your question. I
feel like I would say, yeah, team total probably gets there,
but I have less of opinion on the team total
than I do the Reds.
Speaker 2: And you also have the worst hitting team in baseball.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, right, yeah, And that's actually another point. I
just now I have to double check this, but uh yeah,
I mean, Listen King is a right handed pitcher. The
Reds have been awful against most pitching, but also right
handed pitching. They're near the bottom of the league, so
do what you will with that. I just my gut
reaction to this was the Reds should be a bigger
favorite in this game. All right, let's move it along.
Let's see someone in the chat saying it's a bullpen game,
like it definitely could be. That's why you got to
keep an eye on that. It definitely could be a
bullpen game. But I did read on Twitter that they
plan to call him up, and I'd imagine, just based
on his role in the minors, that he's at least
a bulk guy. So if you see an opener in
front of him, it's like, this is gonna be like
Alan Rangel two point zero. It's what the Phillies have
been doing, where they're gonna like, let him throw a
bulk outing and maybe it's good, maybe it's not. We'll see.
All right, let's head to the chat, let's get a
different game in here. Well, you know what, let's just
let's just do a part two of the national double
header Tokyo Brandon, I'll go to you. Someone was joking
in the comments yesterday like this game comes up every day,
and it's like, well, Major League Baseball has been putting
these guys on national TV this week, So we keep
talking Diamondbacks Padres because that's the game that the entire
country is getting the second half of the nationally televised
double header tonight is Diamondbacks Padres d Bax take the
opener in the series. Last night, the Pirates bounce back
four to one, win five runs in the first inning,
and then nothing the rest of the game, which with
those pitchers is kind of baffling. The Padres get it done.
So now we have the rubber match of the series
TV d Backs Padres to you, how do you see
this one?
Speaker 3: So again the Padres. My albatross. Can can't win a
Padres game to save my life. But I do like
King think. I think acquiring him from the Yankees a
couple of years ago was a great move on their part.
Yankees didn't really use him much of his starter, but
the Padres are and he's been doing quite well, although
you wouldn't know it by his five and seven record.
Padres record is not great. Twenty four and twenty two
at home, so that's pretty darn good. And Michael King
has amazing numbers against these Diamondbacks sixty two at bats against,
a one ninety four average and a five ninety four ohps.
I would take those numbers any day. I think it's
Padres or nothing here. I like King. I like him
much better than Cabrera in this situation, looking at how
they match up. The one thing the Padres you gotta
be careful about is that bullpen though, because although they
do have talent, they're performing dead last in MLB in
current form. Could be because they've been losing a lot
of games, But Diamondbacks bullpen surprisingly is ranked top five
according to my rankings in current form, where I got
both lineups fairly even a huge pitching matchups, I think
Padres first five would probably be the way to go
in this if you think you can trust that bullpen
to get a couple innings. King's not a guy who
goes ultra deep into games, so that bullpen will probably
be called on for three, maybe four innings. So be
careful taking a full game with these with the Padres,
at least how their bullpen's playing right now.
Speaker 1: You know, I still think the Padres have a really
good bullpen. Like I will say this though some of
the some of the Bridge guys this year, Brian haven't
been as good for San Diego. They you know, everyone knows.
I mean, you can ask a seven year old baseball
fan knows you get the ball. Mason Miller it's probably
game over and that's of course. He comes in last
night another perfect inning, gets the save only through fourteen pitches,
so you'll see him at the end here. But I
do get what TV is saying a little bit where
it's like the depth guys for the Padres this year
haven't been as good. So if you're only going to
get five innings from a starter, then you've got the
Matt Suez and the you know some of those guys.
But again, they still have pretty good numbers. I would
have to like, I'd push back a little bit, like
I still think the Padres have a phenomenal bullpen relative
to the rest of the league what they should be.
And Brian, I'll let you sort of finish this handicap up.
The Diamondbacks dead last in w RC plus this year
against right handed pitching. They this will be the best
writing they've seen in the series. So I'm kind of
with TV another good spot for the Padres.
Speaker 2: We'll push back. Mason Miller's pitched three in the last
four days. Yes, he's thrown double digit pitches each of those.
I kind of doubt they would use him today. So
but other than that, yeah, I agree with everything that
was said. I don't trust either offense here, and we're
looking at we're looking at basically, Kings are about a
one forty favorite. Eight to the over, eight and a
half to the under, pretty even out there. I like
Debrera a little bit. I think I played him last
week or the week before. King's the guy that to
be talked about. He doesn't go very long in the game,
so you do have to worry about that. But even
though I don't think Miller is going to play, I
think they're pretty well set for the rest of the bullpen.
But I kind of like the under here. I like
Debrera better than a lot, and King's a guy that
isn't going to be scared away by this Arizona offense.
And you mentioned Trig that they haven't hit well versus
riddies that seem to be a lot better at home.
But if I'm willing to play that eight and a half,
I see eight and a half under his minus anywhere
from one ten to one to twenty out there, you
can get a one to fifteen or under. I think
it's worthy of a bet here. Don't know if he
makes my card, but I expect a lower scoring game
out at least two here.
Speaker 1: Brian, I'm at eight point two on the total. I
definitely agree with you looking at the under. Like Tokyo
Brandon said, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been surprisingly good this year,
and they really didn't use anyone yesterday, just a two
winnings from from a couple of different guys. Didn't really
have to use anyone on Monday because they won the
game eight nothing, and it was you know, they didn't
need the leverage guys at the end of that game.
And I too like Jose Cabrera. I've actually been a
little bit disappointed with Jose Cabrera so far because I
like him. I liked him so much coming up from
the Miners. I love his pitch mix. I think he
has really good stuff, and the last two times out
he's especially in that Brewers game, it kind of felt
like he was just a little bit scared to go
in the zone and trust his stuff. A couple walks
really really started to nibble in that game, got behind
him counts and just like didn't want to throw the
ball in the zone. Whereas if you go back to
his major league debut against the Twins, all he did
was throw the ball in the zone. So I hope
he can make that adjustment here because I too think
he's got big league stuff. I think he's a guy
that is one of the better pitchers in their organization
right now. I liked when they called him up and
so yeah, I could get down with an under if
you can get eight and a half here as well.
All right, So I guess I should say I do
have a five percent play in Major League Baseball tonight.
That's up on my page. I went to and Oh
last night. Think I'm up right around fifty units across
all baseball this season and plus ninety six units in
the calendar year of twenty twenty six so far ninety
four point five eight. I just did the math before
the show, So having a really good year. Love the
play that I have locked in on the basis tonight.
It's a five percent play, and you can get that
Parrott with one of the other guys as part of
the double play package, or check out the various specials
for July that Wager Talk has now put up on
everyone's pages because there's a bunch of different good ways
to save money on the site, which is always what
you should try to be doing. If you're gonna buy,
I'll always preach this. If you're gonna buy picks, be
in it for the long haul. Try to get yourself
a discount on one of the longer term packages. Whether
it's myself or Tokyo Brandon or Brian Leonard, what do
you do? Either of you guys have stuff up for
sale at this time.
Speaker 2: I have nothing as of late as yet, I will
send the shows over and I quite possibly will have
a five percent Also, I just need to do a
couple more things to verify thirty five and thirteen run
nine and one on four and five percent plays. Yeah,
I can't comp on at all.
Speaker 3: I have three plays up in MLB today. I'm up
sixty units on the calendar year. Uh so yeah, things
are going all right. A double play, guys, you can
get three days all access to two of us uh
for a huge discount. So check out a double play.
Good way to go, great value.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the lone Day game. This
seems to be getting some Uh there seems to be
getting some some run in the in the chat. So
let's go to the lone Day game. Uh, this is
gonna be Blue Jays Giants A great pitching matchup. I
logan Web, I guess I'm just gonna give him a pass.
I don't really know what happened in uh In as well.
I guess course Field happened. I guess Colorado happened in
his most recent start. But uh you know two guys
have been throwing the ball well. Dylan Ceeze was a
guy that coming into the year I thought would be
in the mix to win the al Cy Young So
these two will go in a rubber match in the
day today this afternoon, Brian Blue Jays Giants kick us
off with this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, season Web. I did go back and check Web
after that the numbers. The numbers were bad. He had
faced Colorado and Colorado one earlier time this year and
his his results were good, but his base numbers were
not good. So next time he does play in Colorado,
keep that in mind. He didn't really betch you well,
even though the number showed it in the first time.
But yeah, we got season Web. We're looking at basically
Toronto's about a one to fifteen favorite total of seven
and I don't do a lot of numbers with day
and Night. I'd be interested to see if anybody else
does a lot of that with San Francisco because they
don't play a lot of earlier games they played normally
play at night, obviously being on the West Coast. I
just wondering if if it's a better hitting environment during
the day as opposed to night. Without looking at some
of my other numbers, I can, I can look it up,
but anyway, case is a guy who's going to strike
a lot of people out here, and San Francisco, I'm
not a huge fan of their offense in the first place.
The Toronto offense has not performed very well. I mentioned
the first baseman has not had a very good season,
and I think they're going to struggle here. I guess
what if you take a look at what Web has
done this year after a poor performance, usually comes out
and pitches very well the next time out his home
road de ecotomy. He's been so much better at home.
He's got like a two point two era at home
and like a five point eight on the road. A
lot I had to do is last time out, but
still you're catching him in his preferred environment, which is
pitching it home. She's as much as she strikes people out,
he's as good at home as he is on the road.
If you ask me, in that situation, Toronto's got an
elite closer. And yeah, I kind of like the under here.
I know it's low. It's seven to the under. I
mean even seeing a six and a half out there
at one place, heavily just to the over. But and
I'm playing this one, I expect it to be a
low scoring game.
Speaker 1: TV jump in here, Blue Jays, Giants, how you see
in this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, surprisingly Toronto is the worst hitting team in current format.
Now I got him rank thirty out of thirty right now.
They are not hitting at all right now, Giants got
them a little better than mediocre as far as hitting
is concerned. Toronto, like Brian said, bullpen and eight shape
doing really well. And Cease. I mean, my numbers love Cese,
especially his expected numbers love him much better than his
what is it, five and six? Five and four record,
So you know, records don't mean a lot, just like
era is not the tell all for pitchers. You gotta
look a little deeper. But man, I think Cease is
pitching really well right now. And if you look at
how he's pitched against these batters, actually very mediocre. Two
fifty against in a seven fifty one ops. Not great,
but Webb has been absolutely tagged by these Blue Jays
batters three thirty three average against in at eight forty
nine OPS. A lot of guys doing damage against him.
But the way their bats are batting right now, yeah,
it'd be under or nothing for me. I think the
under is at seven or something. It's pretty hard to
take a seven, yeah, is rough. Maybe I might take
a flyer on the Toronto team total over in the
verse five maybe if it's one and a half, but
probably not gonna bet it. Too many things conflicting here
for me.
Speaker 1: I mean, let's listen, when both of these got Like
both of these guys are on there. These are two
of the elite starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. You're
you're gonna it's gonna be really difficult to find like
flaws with with either of these starters. I guess. I
guess Seas can be his own worst enemy at times.
Like usually if he's pitching poorly, it's because he's like
let one little thing snowball into like other stuff, you know.
Typically it's it's his command of the strike zone. Uh,
if he if he nibbles and misses a little bit.
He starts it'll start walking guys. But that's like, I mean,
that's very I think you'd be nitpicking a little bit
to find like real issues with with either of these
guys this year. Of course, Logan Webb again, I think
I'll just give him a pass on the cours Field
blow up, which is very much affecting his numbers. Now,
that was ugly, big crooked number there for him last
time out. Of course, if you subscribe to day or
night mattering, Logan Web one point seven zero er during
the day, and his era is a little bit lower
at home. So maybe he, you know, for as much
as he clearly doesn't prefer pitching at coors Field, maybe
he does prefer pitching at home during the day. I
guess the only thing I have on this one is
my you know, my numbers make the Giants a slight
favorite here right now. You can get them as a
slight underdog at home. Some would say getting Logan Web
as a dog at home is some value right there.
But for me, I've been a little bit higher than
the market recently on the Blue Jays, And of course
I really like Dylan c so kind of a tough one.
I think if you force the Lean out of me
for this afternoon game, i'd be looking to the Giants.
This is a game I'll probably go back and dig
in a little bit more. But man, it's it's tough
to oppose either of these guys. And I feel like
these two teams are very even right now, even though,
like you know, both kind of trying to figure it out.
Both have kind of underachieved at this point in the year.
I've said this a couple of times. I still think
the Giants have far more talent than their like record indicates.
But again, who knows they'll turn the corner with this
college coach that they you know, the route that they went.
It just I don't. I don't know. It's an interesting,
interesting matchup. Can't put it. It's really hard to make
an argument against either of these pitchers though, so again,
I'll say a little bit of value on the Giants
Lean Giants if I had to bet this one. All right,
let's head back to the chat. Let's see, let's go,
We've already all right, I mean, we can listen. Let's
let's talk about let's you I know we were gonna
bring it up, so of course. Uh tokyo Brandon also,
let you start this one off. I was, I was
surprised that the Dodgers blew that for us last night
and that they cost us to parlay, even even with
them not hitting Michael Lorenzen. They let they kind of
let Lorenzen hang around and have a half decent start.
But I just didn't see a scenario where they lost
that game, and they managed to lose that game. So
let's talk Dodgers Rockies really kind of? You know, is
this the Dodgers just sort of going into coast mode.
They're going into the All Star break because man, that
that looked back to back nights. Now they've almost given
a game away late Monday, Monday, they got out of
it last night, they didn't. So what do you do
with Dodgers Rockies here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a tough one. Don't know a lot
about Hughes. Uh maybe you guys can fill people in
better on him, Gabriel Hughes here, but he only has what,
uh three innings under his belt, and uh yeah, I
mean he pitched twelve in those three innings. But he's
gonna face quite the different monster here. Uh, Dodgers are
a little bit more terrorizing than the Giants. Sasaki has
been one of those guys who looks really good sometimes
and looks really bad other times. Which one are we
gonna get today?
Speaker 1: Not sure.
Speaker 3: Neither bullpen performing very well. Although the Dodgers have more
talent in their bullpen, they're certainly not performing well as
we saw yesterday and the day before where Tanner's got
practically wrapped. Gift wrapped that game for them to give
it away, but they didn't take it from him. So
you know, both lineups hitting really well. I would think
over or nothing. Both teams are just smashing. I can't
believe the Dodgers couldn't score against Lorenzo and his seven
plus e ra and his one eight whip, But they couldn't.
That's how it goes sometimes. I mean, they got they
had their chances, but they couldn't knock them in. And
as I mentioned earlier, the Colorado Rockies are the best
eighth ninth inning scoring team in all of Major League Baseball.
I think over and nothing for me. Tanner Scott might
be coming in to give Gift drop more runs for them,
so I would go over in this. I think I don't.
I don't think we're gonna see dead on Rokie Sosaki today.
Speaker 1: Brian, you know this is see I'll go you watch
the first two games of this series. The Rockies are
clearly playing hard. They they're playing one nine innings of baseball.
They don't give up. It's a bunch of young guys
that don't really know better at this point. A lot
of them are just like guys that have come through
the Rockies organization, probably thrilled to beginning in their chance
major League Baseball. I often joke that sometimes the Rockies
have a it's like a fifty six man for a roster,
like if you you could just interchange half the guys
out at Albuquerque, probably be the same team. But they
play hard and they've been They've been a live this
year so far. They've been a live dog in this series.
If you've bet, if you bet them plus one and
a half, you got great numbers both nights. I think
even plus money in at least one of those, and
it's hit both nights. If you bet them as a
straight up underdog, you had a chance to win. On Monday,
they came all the way back, tied the game of
the ninth, and yesterday they win the game. So I
guess my question to you, Brian is I don't like
the Dodgers just seem like they're in coast mode going
into the All Star Break. Do you think the Rockies
are live in the spot?
Speaker 4: No, I don't excuse me. Gabriel Hughes is the first
round draft pick from twenty two. If you take a
look at all their numbers in their rankings of their
pitchers and the minors, his organizational rank number twenty four.
He was eighteen last year, so he's a pretty good pitcher.
They like him for the future. He did pitch on Friday.
He's came into came into this organization. Expect him to
be the long reliever. He threw fifty three pitches on Friday.
I got to save. If you pitch log it up,
they'll give you that same no matter what. If you
pitch the three innings, they'll give you a save, no
matter what the score is.
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's a guy that they think highly of
and we'll see how long he goes here. I will
point out that if you do like Colorado, keep in
mind Jordan Romano, who was in Triple A just a
week ago. He's pitched three the last four days, so
he will not be your closer if you do it
like Colorado here, the Dodgers are just so good off
of a loss, they could tease and play. And we
talked about this two days ago and I said, you know,
because the Dodgers had to come back in the first
game of the series. And I said, that's what good
teams do. The Yankees used to do it, the Dodgers
do it. Last night. They couldn't do it, and they
waited too long. So I expect a really good effort
out of LA. The problem is you've got Rocky Sasaki
on the mound, and we've Colorado's hit better on the
road than I have it on this year, so they'll
get to get there. So yeah, maybe the over, but
I expect the Dodgers to win again.
Speaker 1: I think if I was forced to bet this one,
my number suggests there's a ton of value on the
Rockies here, so I would I would take Rockies plus
one and a half. But like Brian said, it's a
little bit tougher to do that with the Dodgers coming
off of a loss. And then there's always the possibility
that the Dodgers just show up and suddenly you're down
ten two, and so that for that reason, I likely
will not be on so Omney. No, it looks like
and this is the other thing I was kind of
looking for now Omny. If this was the case, I
think I'd be more inclined to take that Rockies plus
one and a half if he if they were going
to piggyback Feltner after Hughes, but I don't think that's
gonna be the case. I think they're using Hughes as
a star here and pushing Feltner to tomorrow. That's what
I believe I've read. So yeah, with Feltner not in
the mix, and maybe you get fused and Hughes and
he could be good for three or four innings, but
you get a little bit deeper into that bullpen, and
that is where the Rockies tend to break down. From
a pitching standpoint. They've got a couple of good relievers
you've seen the last couple of nights like they have
a couple of good sort of like high leverage guys
that are probably better than you think they are. Where
the Rocky struggle a little bit is depth, and this
is back to back nights now where they've had to
eat up some leverage innings. So let's say Hughes gives
you three or four. Well, you're still gonna have to
figure out that the last five innings of the game.
And that's where it gets a little dicey for me
with the with the Rockies here. But I do see, uh,
I do see like there's definitely line value the plus
one and a half could come into play yet again.
But uh yeah, the situation is not as good as
it has been the last couple of days. Someone's like,
someone's like, Adam isn't hiding. Listen. I got a new laptop,
which is great at it. I'm still working out the
kinks with the camera. And what I realized I needed
to do was by so they may buy a hub.
Brian says, moving along, I'll have my lighting fixed tomorrow.
He says. We don't care about the nobody's cares.
Speaker 2: We still haven't put on any picture that right am?
Speaker 1: I right, well, listen, we've breaked, We've broken down four games.
I think I've given out a couple of picks. We
just haven't locked anything in for the parlor. So since
you're so fired up to do that, why don't you
give us our parlor, your parlay leg right here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if if nobody's ever noticed, Yeah, Adam likes to
get talk about a lot of things that took pop
into his head. And we only got so much time.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, we got all day.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm the bad guy in that situation.
Speaker 3: And Brian's wearing that stupid shirt again.
Speaker 2: This this is after after the Dodgers lost that parlay
last night. You're lucky. This is all I all I wear.
Speaker 3: Anyway, shirtless would be okay too.
Speaker 2: I do really like this card. I'm going to There's
a few games I liked. Let's let's take a look
at the Atlanta Pittsburgh game. I'm gonna play Pittsburgh here.
Jones is about a one fifteen favorite total of nine
to the over, nine and a half to the under.
I just think Pittsburgh one negative. Obviously a huge negative.
The rookie shortstop got hurt and he's going to be
out six to eight weeks. That's pretty devastating because they
had just gotten him back. But if you've ever watched
Marco D'Angelo in any of his videos, he loves the
injured player situation. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they've had to have
that too often this year. But I like the Pirates
here even without the shortstop art uh yesterday yesterday for
going up in Atlanta's bullpen. I'm struggling a little bit
right now. Obviously the other day the closer did not
pitch well. So we're catching the Atlanta bullpen in a
situation where I think we might be able to take
advantage of it a little bit. I like Jones better
than Holmes. Holmes is only there because all the injuries
they've had. He's done pretty well in his career, but
I don't have him very highly rated. So we've got
the better pitcher here against the team that the way
Pittsburgh's anyway, now, I like them a lot better, and
you're getting less than one twenty here, so let's go
Pittsburgh minus one fifteen.
Speaker 1: Is my parlat or my parlet piece today, Brian, I
love it. It would have it would have been mine if
you didn't use it. You think you're on the right
track here. Listen, Jared Jones, Tokyo Braden. We talked about him,
you know, a couple of times since he's returned. Couldn't
quite figure out why, you know, he just he looks
so dominant in his rehab, and of course this is
a guy that pre injury, you have to go back
a couple of years, but pre injury was looking like
a legitimate ACE caliber pitcher, and then he came out
and looked dominant in his rehab. But in the big
leagues since he's returned, numbers aren't great. That being said,
he's throwing ninety nine miles an hour. The stuff looks fine,
and last time out against the Phillies like six strikeouts.
They haven't really let him go super deep yet, so
that's interesting to me. Like some of it they haven't
let him go some of it is he hasn't been
super economical with his pitches. But for me, I'm still
high on Jared Jones. I think he's gonna only get
better as the season goes on. And I like Brian's Pirates.
Pick anything for you to add here on Pirates Braves.
Speaker 3: I guess i'ld be Devil's advocate then, because I don't
like the Pirates today, and I'll tell you why. Yesterday
they scored twelve runs on the Braves and they held
the Braves down to four. And usually a team explodes
like that, they come flat the next day. Expect the
Pirates to be a little flat here, and the Braves
are still a fifty two win team. They're not chopped
liver here. Granted, Holmes has been a little bit erratic
up and down a little bit. But if he's been erratic,
then Jones has been erratic on steroids because he's very
up and down as well. You're right, he does have
a lot of speed on the ball. But this Atlanta lineup, man,
I could name their every guy in there, Alana, I
can't name anyone on Pittsburgh's lineup. Granted, current form, Pittsburgh
is hitting better than Atlanta, surprisingly, but I still think
Atlanta's the better team. I think Atlanta's one of the
best teams in MLB. And I don't know if Jones
is going to have a good game or not, so
I think I think the safe way to go here
would be first five innings Pittsburgh under two and a half,
I think would be the way the safe way to
go in this game in my opinion.
Speaker 1: You know the crazy thing about the Pirates, and I've
said this a couple of TV I've I've made that
exact statement. When it's come to the Pirates, this year
was like what is this lineup? Like who are these guys?
But like but and yes, no doubt about it. Taking
O'Neil Cruz out, taking Connor Griffin out, you know, waters
it down a little bit. Like those those two guys
are are gonna be cornerstones of that lineup. They are
two of the best players in the organization. But like
you were getting to the point where you almost can't,
like we're we're in July now. This team has been
top ten in the league in WRC plus all year.
You got guys like Brandon Lowe with eight twenty oh ps,
Bryan Reynolds eight to seventy Esperland Valdez was started the
year in triple A. He might be their best hitter
right now. I mean, he's been sensational since being called up.
And that doesn't surprise me because he was a guy
that coming into the year was on my radar as
like a breakout guy in triple A. So the fact
that they've sort of gone to him early, he's got
his opportunity, Like, it doesn't surprise me that he's having
the season that he's having. And then you've got guys
like Tyler Callahan's down there being productive at the bottom
of the order. Nick Gonzalez has been Okay, it's actually
a better offensive team that I think they're like that
they get credit for sometimes because I think everyone's so
trained to be like, well, the Pirates are not good offensively,
and we don't know a lot of these names. But yet,
like the number, Like if you just look at the
numbers over the course of the season, they're always up there.
They've been up there all season. Brian, where are they
at on the WRC plus list right now? Probably still
top ten? Are they top five? Because they've been there?
Speaker 2: Fis number two, right behind the LA Dodgers number two.
Speaker 1: And again, so take out Cruise, takeout Grippin. Yes, you
have to water it down a little bit, but what
does that make them? Like Still, they're still probably top ten,
if they're top two, if they're second in Major League
Baseball with those guys and you take them out you
have to do a little replacement player, there's still probably
a top ten offensive team. So I almost think, like,
why not the Pirates with Jared Jones here and Brian,
I agree with you, Holmes is a guy that I'm
willing to oppose. So yeah, I'm with you on the
Pirates pick prop King you don't want my old laptop?
The thing was the thing is ready to be thrown
in the garbage. That was the problem. Like it couldn't
get through. It couldn't get through a show. So no,
that thing is ready to get discarded. It was five
years old. It had a good run. We're going to
retire that thing to the trash. Tokyo, Brandon, we need
a parlay pick from you? Do you? Where do you
want to go with your play today?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I'm going to go to a game we have
not covered yet. Last time I said that we covered
it the first game of the show, but I'm absolutely
sure we have not covered this one yet. I'm going
to go to Boston and the White Sox, two pictures
that I really like. And actually Bennett surprisingly has been
better than Martin. He's been great. Neither one of these
lineups are really scaring me in current form right now
throughout the Bullpens. I think Davis Martin Jake Bennett are
gonna hold everything down here. First five under is the
way I'm going to go here. I think if we
can get a four and a half, that would be
just absolutely wonderful. Can we get a four and a half.
I apologize I did not do my homework on that.
Let me take a look real quick. Four and a
half is minus one twenty two on Pinnacle, but I
don't know what it is in US books. But I
think first five under four and a half would be
an excellent way to go here. I don't see either
one of these lineups. Yeah, the White Sox are hitting okay,
but they're not exactly striking the fear of God and anyone.
So and I think Bennett's pitching better than Davis Martin
right now. So first five under in this game for me.
Speaker 2: Under the four and a half is minus one thirty.
Speaker 3: I'll take it. Yeah, and get a double play. Guys,
get a double play two of your favorite three handicappers
three days, huge discount. Go to wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian, we talked about this game yesterday, you know,
kind of having maybe some reservations about Noah Schultz turned
into an easy winner for the Red Sox. They win
the game eight to one. You know, I like Bennett too,
Like I would almost run it back with the Red
Sox here. This was one that, like I felt like
the number was right on didn't really want to bet
again bet on the Red Sox after I passed on
what I considered to be a better spot yesterday. How
are you seeing the side in total for there was
the side on this one.
Speaker 2: I'll keep it short. I think the number is right.
I agree with TV. I like both of these pictures here,
but not enough, not enough to make it a play
for me.
Speaker 1: And the under four and a half for that first
five you said is minus one thirty. Yes, yeah, I
can't really Again, this game was probably the closest in
terms of like being right on the number, so I too,
don't have a ton to add here. And again I'll
just go back to the fact that I feel like
I felt like yesterday was the spot, the better spot
for the Red Sox. I missed it. I didn't play it,
so I'm not gonna come back and play it here.
But if you did play the Red Sox yesterday, I
see a couple of people in the chatter like run
it Red Sox. I couldn't really fault you from running
it back. I think Jake Bennett's pretty solid and like
TB said it, Davis Martin, maybe a little bit of regression.
He pitched better than I could have ever imagined for
like two months. So again, maybe the White Sox regress
a little bit too. That's it. This is a tricky series,
and the White Socks are going to be a tricky
team in the second half to figure out with how
well they played in the first half. All right, for
my parlay, leg I'm gonna use the Reds. I feel
like I know enough about Chuck King. We talked about this.
This was the game that opened the show for us.
We talked about this game, and I can't believe it's
as low as it is. I think the Reds are
going to be able to do enough to put Chase
Burns in a in a position to win this game.
And I actually think if we lock this in now,
we're going to get some line value. I think this
is going to creep up as the day goes on. Brian,
Is that higher than it was at the beginning of
the show? Right now, it's lower.
Speaker 2: The American books started coming out, some of the Sharper books,
and yeah, it's it was about one earlier. Now we're
looking about.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't understand that at all. I'm gonna have
to go I'm gonna have to go digging into that
a little bit again, like we're starting to get into
the territory where this may actually, you know, if this
comes down any lower, I may have to throw this
on the client card. I just again, you're getting Chase Burns.
You're getting him at home, and the Phillies are likely
piecing this together with King or like it's some of
their lesser guys. So after they win last and they
used a little bit of their leverage arms last night,
I don't see how you can really not like the
Reds at home. It burns on the mount here. So
what are we gonna call it? Minus one thirty six?
Is that good for the parlat Sure? I feel like
that's a bargain on the Reds with that, with that
picture at home, at that price, that is a bargain.
So we'll go with that. That is the That is
the show today. We've we've made it in on time,
even with me getting off track on my laptop chatter.
I will have my lighting fixed by tomorrow. As I
continue to play with the new machine here tonight, I've
got a five percent play hope you joined me for that.
That's up on my page right now. You can get
it as part of the double play package Freebird coming
in at the gun with a donation much appreciated. He
just says, thanks, gentlemen. Let's have a great winning Wednesday.
Let's roll. Absolutely, that's what we're trying to do every day.
Go ahead, TV Pebird.
Speaker 3: Are you are you still in Italy or Egypt or something?
This guy was like writing us from eating breakfast on
the Nile River or something. Where are you now?
Speaker 1: He had a pretty good euro trip going. I think
he was in Italy's and I think he was in Switzerland.
That sounds it sounds pretty nice to me. So yeah,
hopefully you're having a great day wherever you are. It's
gonna be a great day for us, and we're gonna
hit this parlay today. We are gonna go with Brian
Leonards going with Pirates minus one fifteen on the money line.
I'm gonna go with the Reds minus one thirty six
on the money line, and Tokyo Brandon is going with
Red Sox White Sox first five under four and a
half minus one thirty. So once again we've got Red's
money line minus one thirty six, Pirates money line minus
one fifteen, Red Sox White Sox first five under four
and a half minus one thirty. That is the three
team or today check out all the great specials on
the wager Talk site, and the three of us will
be back tomorrow morning, not in Eastern for another total basis.
We'll see you guys then