Total Bases | Thursday MLB Picks: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions Today | 7/9/26

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0:00 - Wednesday Recap
2:30 - Cubs/Orioles
11:10 - Guardians/Twins
18:50 - A’s/Tigers
27:25 - Royals/Mets
32:50 - Yankees/Rays
43:55 - Diamondbacks/Padres
50:20 - Parlay of the Day

Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is Thursday. It's time for

total bases. Let's go around the horn before we get

into it. I'll go last to Tokyo, Brandon. How was

your Wednesday night?

Speaker 2: Oh?

Speaker 3: Sorry, that's you. Last I checked Tokyo, Brandon? Was you?

We want to know how your Wednesday night was?

Speaker 4: Yeah, a little too much, Jack Daniels. I went and

O yesterday, so that was good. I was on the

same play. Brian had his five percent on, which was

Washington Man. That Griffin. He's good Man, he's good. He's good,

and nobody knows it yet, so we'll keep betting him

until they find out. I went three and oh in

MLB and my five percent KBO play is seven nothing

in the ninth inning, so hopefully that comes through as well.

So feeling good, Brian.

Speaker 1: If you bought the double play yesterday, you got you

essentially got a Beltway two pack for the five percenters.

And Brian was on the right end, the right side

of the sort of DMV metro area of course. So yeah,

the Nats get there. That was your five percent? How well,

did you have any thing else for Wednesday?

Speaker 2: Yeah? I also had Tampa Bay. They went in a

shout out. They are very good at home against divisional arrivals.

Problem is, today's line may be a little bit high,

but yeah, another two and oh at three and all

the day before, thirty seven and thirteen, so seventy four

percent winners. Obviously, percentage doesn't mean as much in baseball,

obviously baseball and hockey. But still in the top three

last seven days, last three days, last thirty days, number

one overall. So once again hand complaining. If you're looking

for baseball handicappers that are hot, we've all done very well.

Speaker 3: Yeah. So in the chat, this is an Orioles hat.

Speaker 1: That was my I didn't realize Brian was on the Nats,

like I said jokingly, I was on the wrong side

of the you know of town. Of course, the Orioles

failed to get there. I did go two and one

overall yesterday, so didn't lose any ground. Basically two smaller

plays that offset the five percent loss. And the reason

I wanted to go last was not to put off

having to come on here and talk about the fact

that I lost my five percent play. But I want

to open the show and give you guys a client play.

I'm going right back to the well I'm on the

Oriols again today. I already hate myself for it. His

team pisses me off, Brian. They do little, They just

they they should.

Speaker 3: Be better than they are. The reason, the reason that

they're not.

Speaker 1: Little things right, Like, the thing that bothers me about

this team is the fact that they're relievers don't like,

they don't want to throw strikes. It's like there was

a couple of times if you watched the game last night,

where the game was not on of hand.

Speaker 3: I mean, we're in like a four to three game.

Speaker 1: Late, you know, and they turned an inning that, oh, listen,

if the Cubs earn it, and they were earning it,

they were hitting the ball of the ballpark.

Speaker 3: But if they really earn it, fine.

Speaker 1: But I have seen the Orioles so many times have

an two count with one of their relievers, and then

they nibble their way back to a walk, they nibble

their way back to three to two, and suddenly the

guys on base and listen again, do I think that

I was on the right side last night?

Speaker 3: Well, not really, because I thought they.

Speaker 1: Would have done more damage off of Colin Rea, and

I thought Dan Kreamer maybe would have I didn't think

he actually pitched bad. He just got nipped by the

long ball four times, like but they were all solo homers.

But Brian, I feel like if I'm getting seven runs

on fourteen hits from the Orioles, kind of felt like

I should have.

Speaker 3: Won that game.

Speaker 1: Again, it's nine to seven, it goes the other way,

But I'm coming back with the Orioles today. That's my

parlay leg. It's a four percent play for my clients.

I'll get your guys opinion first, but I am on

the Orioles here, Brian, what do you think about that?

Speaker 2: Yeah, we're getting a couple of lefties. Peterson against Rogers

Baltimore is about a one twenty seven favorite total total

attend to the under. They're expecting some runs here. I

wanted to play Chicago because Peterson got blown up last

time he pitched. He's better than that, but he's not

having his greatest season. The match let him go with

it tells you how it's gone for him. But going

to Chicago, at least he got a chance to fight

for the playoffs here. Rogers is a guy that I'm

just flull mixed with. Every time I give up on Rogers,

he comes out and pitches. Well, he's much better at home,

I believe, than he is on the road. Ten runs

is all. It seems to be awful high here with

a couple of lefties. I don't know. Maybe may if

I'm playing and I'm looking at the under. But yeah,

usually when I lose a big play, the next day

the team really comes out and plays. Well, I'm a

day early. Maybe you're a day early on this one.

I can't. I can't bet Rogers because I just don't

know the Rogers I'm going to get. Although he's been

pretty good lightly and the spot screams that Peterson's going

to have a good start, but the line tells you

they don't expect it, and I don't trust them. So

good luck to you. But I don't have anything to

add on this one, really, Tokyo.

Speaker 1: Brandon Mark Lambert says clubs are hot. I wouldn't bet

against him. Yeah, they are hot, that is true. But

this sort of is your This is the finale, This

is the avoid the sweep spot?

Speaker 3: Am I avoiding the sweep with the Orioles today?

Speaker 4: If on my Twitter X I put up my picture

matchup rankings and Peterson tops that ranking, so a lot

of a lot of things going kind of canceling each

other out. Peterson, like Brian mentioned, had a bad game

last time. Usually pictures bounce back, but are usually the

elite pitchers. And another caveat is those numbers that I

put up on the starters their matchup rankings. I can't

divide a date for that, so that could have been

four years ago where he was good, So take it

with a grain assault. I mean, it is important to

know that against these batters he has been good. Trevor

Rodgers has been pitching pretty good too, not elite level,

but I don't think the look, I don't think the

Mets or I'm sorry, I don't think the Cubs. I

mean they're a good team. They're good hitters. Trevor Rodgers

has pretty good numbers against them as well, so so numbers,

I think the Orioles will avoid a sweep here. The

Orioles have the much better bullpinning current form right now

number four, Cubs number twenty two, and my numbers really

don't like Peterson despite his past success against these batters.

So yeah, I think that's enough for me to think

the Orioles are gonna pull out salvage at least one

win in this series, so I would probably take them.

Speaker 1: It's such a big game for the Orioles if you

look at sort of where they're at in the pecking

order and like what these next couple of weeks mean

to them. They just can't get swept here and they

really need to have a decent homestand they got the

Royals coming in over the weekend.

Speaker 3: It is a huge game for them.

Speaker 1: It's part I thought last night was a huge game

for them, and they really you know something I do

like about what they did last night. I guess we'll

work backwards here for a second for my handicap. You know,

they got after the Cubs bullpen. They answered back after

they went down nine to three. If that hit gets

up the middle, Gunner Henderson hits a bullet, Dansby Swanson

makes a great play on it to end the inning.

Speaker 3: If that gets up the middle, it's.

Speaker 1: Nine to eight and they have the tying run on base,

and the batter before Holiday got the second Mister Hall

run by a couple inches. Now the Cubs use some

of those better bullpens arms to get out of the

couple jams and close out the game yesterday, So the

Cubs bullpen won't be so two.

Speaker 3: Things from the bullpen.

Speaker 1: They won't have as good of a sort of compilation

of arms today. And I just don't think the Orioles

are like scared of facing Cubs relievers at this point.

And then we'll work back to the starters. Yeah, David

Peterson had a bad game. David Peterson has had a

bad season. There hasn't been many good ones, you know,

there had There really hasn't been many good.

Speaker 3: Games this year for David Peterson.

Speaker 1: He comes in with a er close to seven, a

one to six seven whip, all of his underlying metrics

bottom ten percent in the league, and expected batting average.

Speaker 3: He's just not very good.

Speaker 1: So you know, the Orioles have struggled against left handed pitching,

but this is a bad left handed pitcher. And then

you look at Trevor Rodgers and you're just like, you know,

did last year happen or is it like you know,

it's all it's crazy to think that this was a

guy that in twenty twenty or was totally lost, looked

like he was totally done at one point in time,

comes back out, has a sub to era last year

with it with it like an insane season after spending

some time with the miners, and this year has been

what he's been. But like, I still think there is

some upside there. He's still getting like a decent amount

of swing and miss. Again, I joke like, I'm already

annoyed and the game hasn't even started yet. That's just

how I feel about Orioles Baseball. I think I'm on

the right side here. I think the Oils are gonna

avoid the sweep. I went a little longer on this

one because this is a four percent play for my clients,

and instead of selling it, I decided to just give

it out to you guys here on the show for free.

It will also kick off our three team parlay today. So, Brian,

am I still I played this minus one twenty five

for clients.

Speaker 3: Has it moved a little bit?

Speaker 2: Yeah, there's uh, you can actually get as low as

one twenty three out there now, and it has gone

down a little bit. I said I could have won

twenty seven earlier. That's pretty close. Yeah, it's you can

get better, but there's also some one thirties out there.

Speaker 1: We'll call it one twenty seven again. I think you

know shop around, of course, for the sake of the parley,

we will call it one twenty seven and we're off

to a hot start here. On Thursday, we already gave

out a four percent client play.

Speaker 3: We kicked off the parlay.

Speaker 1: I don't have anything up for sale yet because we

just gave it to you, so I'll let the other

boys promo Tokyo, Brandon, Do you have anything up on

the website.

Speaker 4: Yeah, I do. I have a few MLB plays that

I put up, a couple that I really like, and

you can get a double play two of your three

hottest handicappers on the planet. That would be US three,

especially Brian. He's tearing it up right now. I went

three to o last night, so we're all doing pretty

good right now. Two of us three three days a

huge discount. But yeah, I do have a couple of

plays up.

Speaker 1: All right, let's keep it moving, Let's go to the chat. Okay,

this is a this is a good one. This is

actually one. I have another early game I kind of

have an opinion on. And if I have an opinion

on the Cleveland Guardians, I'm not I'm not gonna have

that opinion until I hear what Brian Leonard has to

say about his Guardians unfortunate loss for them last night.

I kind of liked them a little bit yesterday laid off,

kind of felt like they let that one slip away.

Brian had a couple of different leads and end up

losing five, six to five to the Twins.

Speaker 3: Do you think your Guardians bounce back here?

Speaker 2: Yeah? I do, and I about half the games today

are on the day card I was. I was debanding

on what I was going to use for the for

the parlay, but since we're talking about this game, I

will use Cleveland in this game. They are basically about

a one twenty five favorite. Let's go on twenty six

is my parlay leg here. They got Williams going against Ober,

and Ouber's pitched better lately than he had had in

the past. Williams is the one guy on this team

that since he's cutting back on his walks, he can

go longer in games, and that's important for this Cleveland bullpen.

They fell apart yesterday walks like crazy. At the end

of that game. Guys that had been really good all

season long just couldn't hit the strike zone. And Sebrowski,

I believe walk, you know, three or four straight guys,

but they didn't have anybody ready in the bullpen. Sebraski

is great. The guy's terrific, and he just could not

find it yesterday. And the rest of the bullpen struggled

other than other than the closer who came in when

the game was tied. He was great again. The rest

of them struggled. But Cleve's got a really good bullpen.

I would expect them to bounce back a little bit here. Cleveland.

You touched on teams trying to avoid the sweep. Minnesota's

won four straight games, Cleveland's lost four straight games. Cleveland,

for the most part, has been really good at limiting

long losing streaks. They've done that for years. I think

it's because their starting pitching staff is so talented. You're

always going to get somebody out there that's going to

pitch a good game. I think we're going to get

a good game here out out of Williams and we're lane.

Like I said about one twenty six, you know, we

get as low as one twenty four, as high as

one thirty out there. Right now. I like Cleveland in

this game. I'm still not enamorated with that, with the

hitting of this team, they just don't have very good hitters,

but they're able to be a better offensive team than

what I thought they would be when all this happened.

They did get their outfielder back. He was very good yesterday,

the rookie. So yeah, Minnesota, they're playing pretty good ball.

I just still think Cleveland is probably the better team here,

and they're getting them on a losing streak, and I

like him. You're laying a decent number. There's a reason

why Cleveland has been installed as the road favorite here,

despite the losing streaks, despite Cleveland's batting a lot of times.

The Lion smacker will tell you what the right side

of the game, as I believe he's telling us the

right side is Cleveland here.

Speaker 1: Yeah, it looks like we're gonna have Bailey Ober for

the Twins. I watched at a little bit of his

his rehab start in Saint Paul last week. He has

that pitched in the big leagues since May thirtieth, So

right there. I mean, Gavin Williams is already the better

of those two. And now you get Ober kind of

coming back from an injury. Tokyo Brandon Guardians Twins to you,

how are you seeing this one?

Speaker 4: Yeah? Gavin Williams having a pretty good season. He was

on my chronic walker list last last season, but this

season is kind of pulling it together, doing pretty good actually.

And this is the tightest matchup of all the matchups today.

According to my numbers, these two teams are like neck

and neck tight. I do have the Guardians with the

better bullpen and the better starter, but the Twins have

the better hitting. However, in my opinion, generally speaking, pitching

trump's hitting when all things are equal. I mean, you

can have an elite lineup and an elite pitcher. Usually,

in my experience, the elite pitcher wins that matchup. You know,

it's really hard to hit a baseball, guys. It's the

hardest thing to do in sports. I think Cleveland avoids

the sweep here. I don't know if I'm gonna take

them or not, but I don't think they're gonna get swept.

And I think Williams is the better pitcher, the better bullpen.

If you got the better picture, the better bullpen, and

you're desperate to get salvage one win in a three

game series, I think you'll come through with it in

most cases.

Speaker 1: Before I just decided to be like an all time

nice guy and give my four percenter away instead of

selling it. This afternoon, I was going to use the

Guardians for my parlay leg on the show. So I'm

glad Brian used that because that this was going to

be the way I was going to go if I

didn't use the Orioles something. I had to pull the

numbers up just so I didn't make sure I didn't misspeak.

But yeah, I watched some of Ober's start against the

Buffalo Bisons last week. That was his rehab start at

tripa A. He got knocked down and knocked around a

little bit, and he had he had.

Speaker 3: One prior to that.

Speaker 1: I think cedar rapids is like a a high A

and he got knocked around there. So again, you can't

When a veteran guy goes and has a little bit

of a rehab outing, typically not too worried about the

results and stuff like that.

Speaker 3: But thirteen hits and eight and a third innings of

rehab is not great. I guess the nice takeaway there

is he.

Speaker 1: Didn't walk anyone, so he probably feels like he's got

the command.

Speaker 3: So on and so forth. But the point I'm trying

to make.

Speaker 1: Here is even on Bailey Ober's best day, he's not

better than Gavin Williams. So like, now you throw the

uncertainty of like, okay, he's getting his first big league

action since May thirtieth. Neither of his rehab starts were

overly impressive. But even Bailey Ober at his best is

not a better pitcher than Gavin Williams. So why would

I not want to take a shot with Gavin Williams

right here and in the desperation spot of like trying

to avoid a sweep against the division rival that suddenly

is on your tail. Three weeks ago, the Twins were

nowhere near the Guardians and the standings. Now they're right

there neck and neck feels like a big spot for

the guards too. I think they get it done. They

need it, Yeah, they do. And this is the type

of pit This is the type of game where you

got a guy like Gavin Williams, who I think at

this point kind of he is the ace on that team.

Speaker 3: Like these are the types of.

Speaker 1: Games that that that guy goes out and typically pitches

well and wins. So I hope for your case, Brian,

as a Guardian's fan and backer today that they do

just that for you.

Speaker 2: Yeah, if you take a look at the Fangrafts ratings

on the season, Overs one thirteen and Williams is twenty five,

Messoics twenty So Cleveland's got much better starting pitching when

you take a look at the two teams. And yeah,

you mentioned coming off the I l Yeah, it's it's

a big difference fin a veteran picture just trying to

get get back. So yeah, I don't I wouldn't pay

too much attention to that, but it is something to

keep in mind in your handicapping.

Speaker 1: Yeah, and again I'll just I'll just say I don't

think on Bailey Over's best day that he's better than

Gavin Williams.

Speaker 3: So that was that was kind of the point I

was trying to make. Right there.

Speaker 1: You guys are finding all the games I have opinions about,

because if I didn't use the Oriels and the Guardians,

I might have used this one, you know. So, Brian Leonard,

I'm coming back to you because the chat is always

asking for underdogs, always wants a good underdog, and Alex

Ran says the Tigers are hot, but do the A's

avoid to sweep. Well, I don't know, but I do

think the a's are value. So talk to me, Tigers a's,

how are you seeing this one?

Speaker 2: I do agree with that, And if people have just

followed me lately, they see I've been playing more favorites

than underdogs because there hasn't been a lot of in

my opinion, there hasn't been a lot of underdog value

out there. But I do this is this is one game.

There's a couple of games that I thought there was

some value for the dogs. This is one game that

I thought have some value. Valdez is the lefty. The

Athletics say what you want about him. For a couple

of years now, they've really raked against lefties. They've hit

left as well. Valdez is a guy who is you know,

he's having a down season for the for Detroit. I

was excited when they signed him in the off season,

and not excited for what he does in the locker room.

Is He's not known to be a good influence, but

he is a good steady pitcher, a good inningsader, and

he's been that way for his entire career. Perkins is

the guy that has the higher upside going forward, and

and I like the Athletics a little bit here at Detroit.

I mentioned it, what three weeks ago or something that

don't count. The Tigers. Tigers are high right now. They're

only four games out of first place. I said at

the time, I said, if you can get the Tigers

to win the division, I would be a pretty good bet.

And I still think the Tigers will end up the

season winning this division. I think they're better in Cleveland

is I think they're better than the White Sox are.

White Sox are having some regression, although I like the

way this team. The White Sox are looking for the future.

Next year in the White Sox will probably be the

favorite in this division. But the Athletics have not been

playing well right now. They're an afterthought and they need

to get a victory. And I think catching you know,

you're catching upwards of one to twenty four here. There's

a few of them out there, but for the most part,

to catch a one fifteen, I think that, well, here

we go. I just came up over the oddeologic site

that swar Is is now the starting pitcher for the Athletics,

and without knowing how long he's going to go, Uh see,

I didn't get stuck playing the Athletics because they had

the pitching change. So if he's if he's just a

starter and he's going to pitch it inning or two

an opener, then I'm still interested in it. But without

that uh information, right now, I better shut up.

Speaker 1: Yeah, I was, I'm gonna I'm gonna try to find

that out as we're on the show.

Speaker 3: I was.

Speaker 1: I was really not expecting that because Perkins has been

good for them. He's he's been starting games, so I

didn't really expect them to put an opener in front

of him. Uh. Yeah, that is that's interesting, I I.

I wonder we'll have to keep an eye on that.

Speaker 3: Now. His last start was not great seven.

Speaker 1: He kind of got blown up in his last start,

and we'll get Tokyo Brandon in here.

Speaker 3: Jack Perkins.

Speaker 1: Last time we saw him destroyed by the Marlins.

Speaker 3: Uh and runs in three and two thirds. It was

kind of bond in that game.

Speaker 1: So maybe they put it because Suarez is a bullpen guy,

so they might be putting someone in front of him.

Speaker 3: But yeah, that does throw a wrinkle into the mix.

Speaker 1: Any thoughts, I guess now that you know that TV,

any thoughts and then we'll go back to Brian.

Speaker 4: Yeah, my numbers don't like Valdez, but he's one of

those guys when I bet against him, he comes out

and throws seven innings of no hit ball, But my

numbers really don't like him hitting wise. I got both

of these teams pretty even in current form. A's bullpen's

playing really bad, but I think they salvage one game here.

I actually put a free play out on wager talk

dot com earlier. It was the A's plus one and

a half. So this out of the matchups today, if

there's a live dog, yeah, I would agree that it's

the A's here. And I think Suarez is going to

pitch one inning, and.

Speaker 1: You're right, he is the opener. I just confirmed it.

He's going to open this scheme, so yeah.

Speaker 2: I did. I did too, And if it makes a

lot of sense, I know TV doesn't like openers, but

it makes a lot of sense here because your normal

lineup for the Tigers five out of your top five

or yeah, five of your first six guys or left

handed batters. They do it a lot with getting Carry

Carpenter out there, So what the what the Tigers will

likely do if you pitches two innings, let's just to

say two innings, he can he can avoid uh carry

Carpenter and they'd have to use Jamal Jones or Malgarry

is to start the game and that leaves later on

in the game. It helps out your your red handers

in the bullpen, your left handers in the bullpen, because

you can you can match up better. So it's a

smart move by by the age. They don't normally, not

that they don't make smart moves, but this is this

looks like it will be a smart move in this game.

So yeah, I'm back. I'm back on the A's. I

think I have him in for an ending or two

screws up that Detroit lineup because there's so much better

against lefties, certain guys, certain power guys, especially.

Speaker 1: Gotten a little bit of a I always I always

chuckle when like people call, like you know, like there's

a Tigers fan on Twitter. That's like it's like, I

don't care about any of your teams like that. That's

the beauty of being a better and not being a

fan Like I I don't care about the Tigers, so

like it's nothing personal. I just think they're overvalued, right,

now I said this the other day. I think they've

been overvalued this whole series. But you know, School Bowl

obviously that's a whole different ballgame when he's pitching good,

like some of the some of the pitchers they had

Melton last night.

Speaker 3: Like here's here's my thing with Valdett.

Speaker 1: Like two things that i'll that'll are pro A's points here.

One you you name some names off, Brian, this still

isn't a great Tiger's lineup. Like once you get outside,

like they're big three or four, I see a lot

of like six hundred ops is.

Speaker 3: I see a lot of guys that you know, Toledo.

Speaker 1: Mud Hen's esque players that are like kind of being

forced into this lineup right now. Malgary Jones, uh if

they put the backup catcher in like that that was

you know, he was in a game the other night.

So it's like it's not a great I know they've

been much better since June first, but one of the

guys that made them better in June, Glavor Torres, has

been out. So it's like, to me, it's not this

great lineup. I don't really care for Franber Valdez at

this point, Like there are a lot of concerning things.

When it comes to him, he's not getting swing and miss.

He gives up a lot of hard hit. You don't

want to do that to the A's, Brian, This A's

team can rake.

Speaker 3: It's not a good profile against the A's.

Speaker 2: Yeah. If you take a look at the current starting

five for the Detroit Tigers, you'd be hard pressed to

find anybody that's not better than Does. He was signed

that he brought in as a number two behind Schooble.

I would with with schooball Melton clarity, and Miz, I

would Rick Parmervel does number five. His clarity is pitching

a lot better. He just had terrible luck earlier in

the season. And Miz has been terrific since they brought

him Mountains terrific.

Speaker 4: Uh.

Speaker 2: So to me, he's the number five starter right now,

and you're laying uh, you're laying the favorite with the

number five starter. So yeah, I think the Is are

in a pretty good shape today.

Speaker 3: Yeah.

Speaker 1: And one final thing, if you can get over the

blow up against the Marlins, like Jackson Perkins really good

swing and miss, his stuff is great, and he's another one,

you know, big big ninety six, ninety seven mile an

hour fastball, but he throws like four pitches off it.

Speaker 3: I actually think this guy is gonna be pretty good.

Speaker 1: This is a guy that I think you want to

be patient with if you're a better, look for spots

to play on him. Yes, he's young. Yeah, he had

a blow up against the Marlins teams hotter than anyone.

Speaker 3: On planet Earth. Right now, we'll give him a pass there.

Speaker 1: I kind of think he comes out and pitches well,

all right, let's go back to the chat. Free Bird

coming in with a big donation, so we got to

shout him out.

Speaker 3: Much appreciated again.

Speaker 1: All the donations go to charity, a spot decided by

our home office. They work with a bunch of good

organizations when it comes to donating money, and we donate.

Everything that goes into any of these shows through the

YouTube channel gets donated. So Freebird much appreciated. Tokyo Brandon,

I'm coming to you. He wants to talk team total

over specifically Royals Mets. If you get a game like

you got two nights ago, all your overs are going

to hit. That was incredible Beer League softball game going

on there. That was two nights ago in this series.

But we're talking about today's game. So Royals Mets freebird

says overs in game. Both pitchers ops nine hundred per tbps.

So I think he's talking about you, Tokyo Brandon kick

us off Royals.

Speaker 3: Matt's how you're seeing it?

Speaker 4: Yeah, he's looking at my list on my Twitter x

Tokyo under Brandon. They do have numbers over nine hundred.

So don't I'll just give you some quick advice. Don't

base a bet totally on that. That should be kind

of like the clinching final, you know, factor it shouldn't.

You shouldn't base a bet purely on that because some

of these numbers could go back a few years. However,

it is an indication that the picture could struggle against

these guys. It's not the it's not the tell all,

so be careful guys. But if I were to bet

either team total here, I kind of yeah, I kind

of like the Royals team total here over if you want,

really want to bet an over because Royals beats are

picking up a little bit. I think lad five right now.

I got them rink seventeen, so they're moving up. The

Mets bullpen was ranked top five. They've dropped down to

mediocre level seventeen ish, but I like Waka better than Manaya,

and Manaiyah's numbers against these Royal batteries are bad. Bobby

Witz back, I like the Royals team total better than

I like the Mets team total in this particular game.

So if you were going to bet that, that's how

I would recommend doing it.

Speaker 1: Yeah, you could also just go over. I mean, you

know the both it's it's only nine. It's only nine,

which is like my project I think I just have

to again, I tweak things like by like tens of

a point, but like my general projection here came out

nine point three, so it's not going to stray that

far from that. So I'm I'm slightly over. And then

Brian like on these two offenses, I would say that

these both of these offenses are probably more likely to

take a step forward in the coming sort of weeks

and months than they are like to be as bad

as they were, I guess coming into this series. Of

course skewed a little bit now offensively by the thirty

run game the other day, but like, still, I kind

of think the Royals and Mets both hit better going

forward than they have to this point.

Speaker 3: In the season. I don't really care for either of

these pitchers either. Why not in over nine here.

Speaker 2: Brian, I think that's the way to look in this one.

There's one game, and this is the game that's probably

gonna have some weather concerns. So if if the game

has weather concerns, you could see some stops and goes,

and a lot of times that they bring in a starter.

It's more of a concern for Canaciity with walking in there.

They they'll bring in a starter to start the game

and then you could have, you know, an hour or

an delay. They won't bring the starter back out again,

which means we get more of the bullpens for these

two and although Devin Williams and Luke Weaver have had

the last two days off, other than that, the bullpens

have been concerning. Obviously, we're always concerned about the bullpen.

We're when we're looking at the road team here because

Kansas City's bullpen is is really bad and the more

bullpen arms out there today, the better chances you got

to hit the over. So, yeah, I'm in agreement. It

is a day game. There's a lot of day games

today and it could be a while to that game

finishes if they do get the rain that is supposed

to come in. But yeah, I would have no problem

playing the over. I have had no problem playing you

can get I believe you can get plus money on

if Kansas City scores five runs here, that's not a

bad deal because minea has not been overly impressive so far,

So yeah, the over would be the way that I

would I would play this. I'm even seeing some nine

and a half's out there now to the under, so yeah,

the nine to the over looks to be a pretty

popular bed.

Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually at nine point four, so if you

want my score projection, I'm at nine point four runs

in this game. If you can grab one of those

over nines that are still there, I really like that.

I also see is that wind blowing out? Am I

seeing wind blowing out at City Field today? Typically not

gonna like be totally affected by the wind in that ballpark,

but there is, Yeah, there is some weather.

Speaker 2: Yeah it's it's supposed to be decently hot with the

wind blowing out, But this is still a very good

pictures park, so it doesn't when the blind bowling out

is not as bad as it is, And like Oracle

park on. It's always plowing on an Oracle Parker's skin.

It home runs. But this is a good pictures park,

so yeah, you gotta take a look at that.

Speaker 3: All right, let's go to here. Here's one.

Speaker 1: I think this is another day game, but that's uh,

you know, there's all. Like I said, there's there's quite

a few day games today. So that's just kind of

how it's gonna how it's gonna go. H First of all,

someone in the chat, like someone says, Adam want to

apologize about being a jerk about the Rays last week. Listen,

having an opinion that did that disagrees with mine. It's

not being a jerk, like, we're all good, uh we

that's the that's the best part about this. I've said

this a million times. This is the reason we are

even allowed to bet is because no one's opinions are

the same. If everyone thought the same, they'd have to

shut down the sports books. They wouldn't be able to

book games, you know. So it's the beauty of this

is that everyone has a slightly different opinion.

Speaker 3: Tokyo, Brandon, what were you gonna say?

Speaker 4: Quick comment about that? I respect a person who gives

me their opinion before the game. I completely do not

respect you if you give your opinion after the game.

So give me all your opinions before the game. I

will I am open minded and I will listen, and

I respect you for that. But after the game, oh

you suck. You picked the pirates, man, that's just high

school stuff. So that's how I If you give me

your opinion before the game, man, I will listen.

Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's that's true. Right once the game is over.

It's like I wish I could pick all all the

games after they already ended. I'd be doing pretty good.

Speaker 4: Yeah, we all have ESPN guys. We know who got

destroyed and we know who won.

Speaker 1: Then the ra the Ra the Rays discussion is super interesting,

and we'll talk about it TV.

Speaker 3: I'm gonna come back to you. We'll talk about it

in the context.

Speaker 1: Of this raised Yankees game this afternoon. Because two things

can be true at once. The Rays have been a

little lucky, they probably are a little bit overvalued at times,

but they're also a really good baseball team. Like, I

think all of those things are true. So and then

another thing I think is true here is something that

Brian sort of alluded alluded to right at the top

of the show. I think they're kind of overvalued today.

It doesn't mean I don't like Rasmussen. So Stoke says,

Rasmussen over six and a half strikeouts on a bounce back.

Like again, I I don't know what You'll kick us

off your TV raised Yankees? Do you think the Rays

are overvalued? And where do you have Rasmussen strikeouts at?

Speaker 4: Oh? Okay, uh, give me a minute for that one.

But I honestly do not think they're overrated today. I

think they're right where they should be. Man, these New

York Yankees cannot hit. Rasmussen is striking out nine point

one per nine and the Yankees are striking out at

a rate of ten point six per nine. So I

have Rasmussen strikeouts at six point seven. So that's where

I got it. But I think the Rais are just

a better team, period, hands down. And this Yankee team

can't hit, they can't field. The one good thing they

got going from is sometimes they put good pictures on

the mound, But today they don't even have their starter listed.

It's gonna be a guy with a weird name, right.

Speaker 2: Uh, Elmer Rodriguez. I believe.

Speaker 4: Yeah, Elmer, that's right. I thought of glue or something.

Speaker 2: Glue that rotation.

Speaker 4: Yeah, good one. Brian, Hey, maybe we can get at

him to talk about his computer, his laptop later. And see, Brian, go.

Speaker 3: Look at these Look at this lighting right here. I

told you TV though. That little piece, Oh you just

need a little adapter. That was like seventy bucks at

best with that little piece. I need it. But yeah,

we're back. We're back.

Speaker 4: We can win it back. We can win it back

with the parlay today. As a matter of fact, I'm

gonna make the Rays my parlay piece because look, they

just hit better, they pitch better, and they field better.

So in that case, Rasmussen has great numbers against against

these hitters in his career. And when the Yankees are

putting up some guy who's named after a bottle of glue,

give me the Rays any day in that situation at home,

great home team. And like you said, they're not exactly.

I don't think they're lucky. I think they're just small ball.

Because it's so funny because the Rays, when you compare

teams together, that they hit less home runs and they

have less ops than every team they're playing. But they

have more hits, more runs, and more walks more that.

I mean, they're just they're just a well put together

I don't know if it's lucky or not. I mean,

I know both of you think that they're lucky, but

I don't know, man, I think I think they're just

a welige team that doesn't have much power. But they

do have one guy who's got a lot of power.

So that's how I look at it.

Speaker 1: Listen, I'm not gonna let Elmer get totally slandered here.

Like he's a good prospect and he's been. He's been

one of the better pitchers at Triple A this year.

He's twenty two years old. He's twenty two years old.

Give it, give him he's he's probably coming at some point.

Speaker 4: Like it.

Speaker 1: In the context of Blake, this is not This is

not the Phillies yesterday who are just calling up some

bum okay, and it ended up being it did It

wasn't the guy I thought it was, but it ended

up being wrangle and he got crushed.

Speaker 3: Right.

Speaker 1: This isn't some like journeyman Triple A bum like. This

is a twenty two year old fourth rounder that's been

one of the best pitchers in minor league baseball at

the Triple A level this year that's averaging a strike

out printing and has a one to two nine whip

and he's had a cup of coffee in the big

leagues and then it hasn't been that bad.

Speaker 3: So I don't mind him. But I'm well, that's the thing.

He's not better than rasters.

Speaker 1: And then I'll go to your point where it's like one, Yeah,

the Yankees, their lineup leads a little bit to desire.

And then, Brian, I'll kick this over to you. I've

been saying it pretty much every time the Yankees come

up for the last month plus without Aaron Judge. This

is a four forty win percentage team this year and

for the last five years. It's just hard to get

behind this Yankees team. But now they are starting to

get a little bit. You know, they are a dog

at this point. Still, it's hard to get behind this

Yankees team.

Speaker 2: When I said that, I thought Toronto or excuse me,

Tampa Bay's lineup was a little high. I didn't realize

Elmer Rodriguez was going to be online. I thought it

was going to be a bullpen game from the Yankees. Yeah,

maybe he is, and I know that he is one

of their high prospect guys, but he has not done

anything in the pros my projections. Somebody asked before about

strike out my walk ratio. I always want guys that

are at two to one or better. I'mna Rodriguez from

my stats in this game is expected to strike out

three point six and walk two point two. That's not

two to one, to better a two to one, and

he has really struggled with his control in the major

leagues overall, a forty three point one percent ball rate.

Now a lot of times the ball rate does not

equal to his walk rate, but his does. He's walking

thirteen point three percent of the battery faces and if

you take a look at him against lefties, seventeen point

nine percent of the lefty batter Sya walks. Forty seven

point one percent walk or a ball rate nobody else

in Major League Baseball is higher than like thirty nine.

He's at forty seven point one. Granted limited innings, he

hasn't pitched that many innings, but you're not going to

find a bigger pitching advance from the starting pitchers today.

Rass Mussen is is I really love grass must And

the only thing is with ras Mussen, they don't let

him pitch a lot of throw a lot of pitches.

On his last three he's thrown eighty eight pitches. Last

time out he only threw seventy seven. Now he's been great.

But your problem you have with him if you're betting

the over, like I'm getting, my number says about six

and a half strikeouts. The problem you have when you're

betting anything over he's only going to go five innings.

Probably he may go six, but most of the time

he'll go five innings. So it's not because he's good,

it's because they pull him early. And that's my only

concern about betting his strikeout total is over. But Tampa

Bay at home is great against divisional rivals. And you

know it was one sixty five when I was looking

at it earlier. Now I'm seeing a lot of the

places that I look at that are the Sharper books

are coming out at like one fifty five now, So

that may be enough to get me somewhat in interested

in Tampa Bay. And I could back I can back

TV in this bat. I think he's got he's got

a pretty good bet here and yeah. Well they Yeah,

Yankee's team right now is really struggling.

Speaker 4: And I'm glad the Yankees won Game one, so this

is a yeah, yeah, so.

Speaker 3: This will actually be Yeah, this would be the race

took the last two.

Speaker 1: Yep, Yankees one opening night of the series. Yeah, I

will say this. The Yankees are doing something right.

Speaker 4: Game two.

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so this is this is the fourth game

of a four game set and the Rays have won

the last two nights. But the Yankees are doing something

with this kid that I don't I don't like when

teams do this with with young prospects, where they sort

of yo yo them, Like that should be something you

do with.

Speaker 3: A guy that's been around for a little bit.

Speaker 1: When you got a fourth rounder twenty two year old kid,

that kid should be in Triple A until you're ready

to call him up and give him like like five

starts at the big league level. The reason I bring

it up is I think his numbers could be a

little bit watered down because it was like start, go

back the screen and uh spot, start back to scrant

That that's something you do to the to the guy

that's been around for ten years and has cups of

coffee in the big leagues, like not the prospect. But again,

that's what they're doing to him right now. It probably

doesn't end well. So I think for your raise, Bet,

I think you're probably on the right side.

Speaker 3: Ran. What was the line on that? What was the

line on raise? Right there?

Speaker 2: Right now, we're looking at about a one fifty.

Speaker 4: Five, Yeah, fifty five, And that's the nice Just you know,

it's like death by a paper cut, by a thousand

paper cuts, you know, these are these rays. They get

on base, get on base, get on base, and for

a young picture, it just gets on your nerves, you know.

I think, I think, I think they'll get the better

of him. Yeah, I'm not slandering him though.

Speaker 2: If you're looking at percentages, a one fifty favorite means

that team's supposed to win sixty percent of the time.

Does anybody think Tampa Bay is not going to win

more more than sixty of the time. So, yeah, under

these circumstances, certainly that's not I missmoke earlier because I

didn't know who was starting for the Yankees. Yeah, I

think that. I think that's a little bit of a value.

Speaker 3: All right on the errors.

Speaker 1: All right, So we've got the parlay locked in. We

have hit a good number of day games on on

the today, but that's also because there's quite a bit

of day games. So we're going to close this out.

We got time for one more. I'm going to head

to the chat and and look for the first night

game that someone has asked about, and we'll we'll see

who the We'll see who the winner is here. Let's

see first night game that I can see in the chat.

All you guys wanted to know about day games, all right,

here's the winner. The winner is the series that we

talked about all week. It's the Padres d Bats fourth game.

Speaker 4: Uh.

Speaker 1: People want to talk about Merrill Kelly. People want to

talk about the total. We've talked about this game every

day this week, Brian Leonard, and we're going to finish

it up. Four game set concludes tonight Petco Park. You

got Gripp and Canning on the mound for the home

team and Merril Kelly will see if he continues to

serve him up for the visitors. D Bax Padres to you,

how are you seeing this one?

Speaker 2: Compleating ignorance for the guy who is in the in

the YouTube, but YouTube, but talk talking about Gad. We

talk about the Padres, they they talk about him every day. Well,

if you're on the board, there's ways to make money

and that doesn't matter how the stink or whatever. But

you got Kelly against Canning, two guys I'm a little

bit concerned with from an offensive standpoint, which is why

the line the totals at nine here. They expect that

to score. But you know, look look at Arizona, they're

just not. There's three teams right now I believe tied

in Major League Baseball for the worst WRC plus on

the season, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Diego. So getting that,

although the pitchers stink, they're not very good. Getting a

nine in San Diego with two of the worst three

offenses in baseball on the season is something to keep

in mind. Canning is about a one to twenty favorite,

one twenty three favorite. Maybe you're against Kelly. Kelly had

just not had it this year. He had a couple

of starts that he looked pretty good, look like he

was coming on of it. I don't want to beat Arizona.

Kelly Canning is a guy that has had some better.

He was expected to be a little bit better than

what he is. So you have got two teams that

can't hit against two pitchers that can't get anybody out.

That leaves me on the sideline. And this I'll be passing.

Speaker 3: TV over to you. D Bacs Padres.

Speaker 4: Yeah, Man, the Padres looks so bad compared to how

much talent they have on their roster. It's really sad

to see. So d Backs won the first game, Padres

won the last two. We got two unders and one over.

This one looks like an over to me all the way, though,

I don't like either one of these starters, although Canning

has a little bit better numbers against the batteris he's

facing than Kelly does. Man, san Diego was bullpen just

I mean, considering the arms they have, I can't believe

they're performing like this, But I got them ranked twenty

nine out of thirty in current form. Doesn't mean that's

what they are, but probably because they've been losing so

many games, they're not using their best guys, but they

have guys. It looks like San Diego to me or

the over in this one. Either way, I'm probably not

gonna bet it, but if I had to, I would

either take Sandy or I would take an over in

this one. By the way, I get a double play

two of us and we're all red hot. Two of

us three for three days, a huge discount and we're

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Speaker 3: Yep, this is one on my radar for tonight. I

like the Padres. Get a bet. Let's say the Dbacks

takes some money today and knock this down a little bit.

Speaker 1: I'll definitely bet that. Yes, two bad pitchers, no question

about it. However, I'm more inclined to forgive Canning for

what he's done so far this year because he didn't

have a spring. You know, this is a guy that

his season didn't really start until May. That's tough sometimes, right,

Like you know, we've seen that where it's like just

he he didn't really have a spring, then has.

Speaker 3: To go try to do it in the minors or

down at the complex.

Speaker 1: And like again, his numbers aren't good, but you know

last time out one run over four innings against the

Dodgers that that's not terrible. The time before that two

runs over four and a third against the Cubs. And

something I've said this week, the Diamondbacks ranked dead last

against right handed pitching in w RC plus.

Speaker 3: And you know, if they can, if he can just.

Speaker 1: Keep them at bay a little bit, why would the

Padres not be able to do something off Merril Kelly,

who has some of the worst stats and worst met

I any start, any pitcher, forget starting pitchers, any pitcher

in Major League Baseball, one of the worst expected the

RA seven point seven eight a three to eleven expected

batting average against. He doesn't strike anyone out, he's he

gives up the highest barrel rate in the league.

Speaker 3: He's been awful. So under those circumstances, you might, I might.

Speaker 1: Be able to get the Padres at minus one twenty

or better to win this game at home. And then,

to go back to what Tokyo Brandon said, a lot

of these guys should start to hit at some point.

So yeah, I like the Padres here and people are like,

how do you bet this game? Like, that's pretty clear

to me. I have no problem with the Padres bet.

I think that's one of the best. I think that's

one of the better moves you can make on the

on the board today. So yeah, Padres is one I've

got on my radar for later. Tonight Tokyo, Brandon, why

don't you hit us with a promo? The people are

sick of hearing me talk, so hit us with a promo.

Speaker 4: You guys. Adam is the host and he has to

give his opinion, so it's only natural he's going to talk.

Speaker 1: I mean, the literal point of the show is to talk,

and people have a problem.

Speaker 4: He's gonna talk about twenty He's gonna talk about twenty

percent more than us. You just have to accept it

or lobby to wager Talk to make Brian or I

the host. But Brian and I are too grumpy to

be hosts, I think, so I get mad, I get

mad at the at the commenters, and Brian gets mad

at everybody. So I think Adam.

Speaker 3: Is they perhaps.

Speaker 2: You want to.

Speaker 4: So anyways, double play is one good one. You can

take two of us for three days, and also the

triple play. If you only like one of us, you

can get six days for the price of three. So

those offers are all at wager talk dot com. There

are other offers too, like between now and football kickoff

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is really all you have to bet right now. So

that's the program.

Speaker 1: Well, I just I you know you're gonna have to

go to the site and buy some plays if you want,

if you want nighttime action, because I just realized our

parlay is a delay right here. It all is all

during the day three teamer, all full game sides. We're

going with the Rays for Tokyo Brandon minus one fifty five,

the Guardians for Brian Leonard minus one twenty six, and

the Orioles for me minus one twenty seven.

Speaker 3: And for the.

Speaker 1: Crowd that says we don't give enough plays on the

show or we never give out our play paid plays,

that is not true because Orioles is a four percent

play for my clients. I didn't put it up for sale.

I'm just giving it to you guys for free. So

that is a four percent client play for me on

the Orioles minus one twenty seven and for the parlay

Orioles Guardians raised three full game sides. Head on over

to the wager Talk website. Check out those great specials

that we have double plays up. Both of these guys

have stuff up for sale that you can buy from

them right now. I have nothing up for sale yet

because I just gave it to you for free. I

may have something later, so keep an eye on the website,

and the three of us will see you in the morning.

Speaker 3: For our total basis four