Mark Bednar joins Tavis Smiley

GOP strategist and former communications director for Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Mark Bednar, shares his thoughts on whether President Trump and Republicans can stay in power amid the possibility of a blue wave and low poll numbers.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you one thing. If I had Barry

White's pipes, y'all couldn't tell me nothing. If I had

the pipes of Barry White, y'all couldn't tell. Can't tell

me much now anyway, but you couldn't tell me nothing

if I had it like Barry White had it, man.

All right, I'm Tabby Smiley, and we're in the final

hour of today's program. It's been a great two hours

and one great hour in front of us. In this hour,

as promised, two conversations on the back side. The Real

Hip Hop Network is back. We'll talk to Anton Muhammad,

CEO and Chairman on the B-side of this hour. We

commence this final hour in conversation with GOP strategist and

former comms director for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Mark Bednar,

on whether and how Republicans withstand and navigate the much-anticipated

blue wave. I was just reading a piece before I

came on the air today. Where is that piece that

I brought in here with me? Yeah, here it is.

A piece in Politico. Headline is this. Ship has sailed.

Ship has sailed. New poll shows even an end to

the war or lower gas prices may not save Republicans.

The ship has sailed. New poll shows even an end

to the war or lower gas prices may not save Republicans.

That ain't good news, Mark Bednar, if you're a Republican.

Speaker 2: Ha, ha, ha.

Speaker 3: Uh, Tavis, thanks for having me. Really appreciate it. Um, yeah,

I mean, we are 20 days out now from the election. Um,

you know, we're in the midst of, you know, we

got the Dodgers and the Brewers squaring off. We're in

the middle of baseball playoffs. We're in the middle of

the final stretches of campaign season. And it is really, uh,

important for Republicans to turn the tide of, you know,

the history of midterms. Only in the last 80 years,

only in two cycles have, uh, the party out of,

for the party in power, maintain their majorities. That was,

of course, with Clinton in 98 and with George W.

Bush in 2002 after 9-11. So history is not on

the Republican side, but there are a couple elements here where,

you know, if they play their cards right, they can

maintain their narrow majorities.

Speaker 1: Give me those two elements right quick, and we'll push

forward from there.

Speaker 3: Well, first and foremost, the fact that Republicans have a

financial advantage, usually in midterms where you see... If there's

a certain tide going one way or the other, the

money will follow that tide. So Republicans kind of being

in a position here where they're able to get their

message out on the airwaves in a way that we've

never seen before for kind of the underdog party, that

is encouraging. That being said, what do you do with

that money? What's the message you get out? Personally, I

think that Trump accounts is the best story that Republicans

have to tell. It's the best thing that they've done

in Congress these past two years. They should be talking

about it every day. Not only does it empower families

and kids, but also every Democrat voted against it. So

there's a political cudgel to it as well. The one

thing that I caution for Republicans, though, is no matter what,

if we don't get our voters out, we are going

to have a rough night. If we do get our

voters out, the math is there. There is an opportunity

for Republicans to go seat by seat, state by state,

to actually hold on to these majorities.

Speaker 1: I've got some questions for Mark Bednar when we come forward.

I love the frame he's put me inside of. I

can operate inside of this. You're listening to Tavis Smiley.

former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California. So, Mark, you

said a few things earlier. I want to give you

a chance to sort of unpack for me. Let me

start with the money piece. It is true. Jess Unruh,

former treasurer here in the state of California, said famously

years ago that money is the mother's milk of politics.

I love that line. Money is the mother's milk of politics.

Make no mistake about it. Money matters. And yet I

wonder in a moment such as this, with all the

other data points I'm looking at, whether or not that

financial advantage that Republicans have can make the difference. Is

money really, does it really matter this time around?

Speaker 3: Well, it's funny, you know, we kind of tossed that

term around in like a callous kind of way. But,

you know, the fact that money in politics, you know,

you want to meet every voter that you possibly can.

For every voter that you can't physically meet, you want

to get your message out on the airwaves to introduce

yourself and then, you know, create a contrast with your opponents.

So what Republicans need to see here is basically to

have the match hit that keg of gunpowder that is

voter enthusiasm. Thus far, we've seen a blanketing of the airwaves,

which is good, but that needs to be coupled with

a jump in voter enthusiasm because Democrats have been excited.

You know, President Trump says to Republican voters, pretend I'm

on the ballot. Well, guess what? Democratic voters have voted.

pretended that since January 1st, 2025. They're there. They're ready

to vote. They're amped. And so it's really important for

Republican candidates and lawmakers alike. And, you know, with President

Trump going out and doing these rallies to actually get

Republican voters and Republican leading independents excited. Money is a

big part of that, but also getting that energized, you know,

I want to crawl over broken glass to go vote.

That needs to be the part of that conversation as well.

But without the money, you know, that's a much harder battle. So,

That is a very important factor here.

Speaker 1: Let me ask you, in terms of messaging, I'm not

being flippant here, but in terms of messaging, what would,

what could Donald Trump or Republicans say that would make

their base enthusiastic? We'll get to turnout more expressly in

a moment here, Mark. But like, what's the messaging point?

When you're trying to excite your base right now, when

you're trying to excite the MAGA base, what messaging would

actually work in that regard?

Speaker 3: Well, there's a couple factors here. One, something that I

think about quite a bit is that people don't vote

to say thank you. You know, Winston Churchill helped save

Western civilization. And after the war, they voted him out.

Speaker 1: Right.

Speaker 3: It's all about what are you going to do next

for me? So while there are accomplishments that they can tout,

I mentioned Trump accounts being a really important element of that.

You also need to demonstrate what are you going to

do next Congress should you keep the majority. Thus far,

that's actually been something that I've been kind of concerned

about for my Republican friends. They have not really articulated

that point to a degree. Democrats haven't either, but it's

not Democrats' job to do that. They're not the party

in power. So Republicans need to have a combination of

here's what we're going to do should we maintain our majorities.

While also saying things like Trump accounts, different elements of

border security, different elements of energy exploration and dominance. These

are accomplishments that they need to expound upon and say,

this was part of the solution here, but we need

to go the full distance. And if you vote for us,

we can continue to deliver. But just stopping short and saying,

here's what we did two years ago, that's not going

to cut it.

Speaker 1: So how much is Trump and Republicans, for that matter,

how much are they going to regret? his insistence that

voters should behave as if he is on the ballot.

Every data point I'm looking at suggests that that narrative

ain't working. And yet he has continued to lean in.

He hasn't backed up. He hasn't backed off of that.

Act like, show up as if I am on the ballot.

He has made himself, as he always does, the center

of everything, the center of the universe. How much is he,

how much are Republicans going to regret that messaging?

Speaker 3: Well, we need that messaging from him. Republicans need that

messaging from him for a couple reasons. One, the Democratic

voting base, they do pretend he's on the ballot. They are,

you know, President Trump is a turnout machine. Turns out

it's for both sides. And so what we're seeing with

that is that Democrats, they've undertaken that assumption this entire time.

Whereas Republicans, so what we've seen in President Trump's, especially

in 2024, he has the most idiosyncratic voting coalition that

we've seen in decades, maybe ever, at least in my lifetime.

And so reaching out and talking to these different coalitions

of voters, of all socioeconomic classes, different nationalities, different backgrounds,

this is something that President Trump, he took the party

across the finish line in 2024. And so it's incumbent

upon all those people lawmakers and candidates to go out

there and re-engage these same populations. Because we've seen, Tavis,

in time and time again, when President Trump is on

the ballot, even in states that he's won, so for instance,

he won seven swing states in 2024. Of those, Republicans

only won one of the swing Senate races. Because Trump

voters who came out for him, maybe they never voted before,

maybe they've never been a member of the Republican Party before,

They turned out for him, but then did not vote

down ballot. So we've seen this before, that Trump voters

need to be directly engaged in this mix. Otherwise, Republicans

do not have a shot here.

Speaker 1: So turnout matters in every election. That's basic knowledge we know.

It's always about turnout. The question this time around is

whether turnout is even more important than it has been

in prior elections. I raise that for a number of reasons,

not the least of which is we were discussing on

this program the other day the Supreme Court decision that

essentially gutted the Voting Rights Act, as we know it,

that Kalei decision. And there was all kind of concern

about how black voters in particular were going to respond

to the gutting the Voting Rights Act. And what we

see in primary after primary after primary, certainly all across

the South, is that black turnout went up dramatically went

up significantly all across the South. So black folk decided, hey,

we see what you did, Supreme Court. We're not going

to roll over and die. We're going to turn out

in droves as a response to the gutting of the

Voting Rights Act as we know it. And so we've

seen again in primary after primary down South, black turnout

go up. There are a lot of African-Americans in key

races down South. I'm thinking of Keisha Lance Bottoms running

for governor in Georgia, for example. And there are others

I could name if I had more time in this conversation.

The point is, that black turnout specifically went up dramatically

in the primaries. There are those who predict for a

midterm election especially, black turnout is going to be up

dramatically and going to make a difference in races, of course,

at least, and certainly all across the South. There's one

way to look at or to discuss this issue of turnout. Now,

let me come to your side of town. Give me

reasons why I should believe that the MAGA turnout is

going to be on steroids this time around to save

Donald Trump, as it were.

Speaker 3: Well, that goes back to President Trump's original imploring of

the electorate, pretend I'm on the ballot. The Republican Party

is very proud of the fact that President Trump, he

increased his share of the black electorate over each election

that he's been a part of.

Speaker 1: That's true.

Speaker 3: And to now have that be a part of the

Republican story of the Republican coalition, that's a good thing.

That's a welcoming thing that Republicans should be proud of.

However- With that, and it's with black voters, it's with

Hispanic voters along the Rio Grande Valley in South Florida,

et cetera, union voters throughout the Rust Belt, a lot

of people who have traditionally not been Republicans but are

giving Republicans a second look, maybe it's because they don't

like Democrats and maybe they just view Republicans as the

safer alternative. Whatever it may be, they're new to the table,

but it's really important for Republicans to not take those

votes for granted. You can't just write them off. You

can't just say that you can't just bank those votes

that they're just going to show up to the table.

They need to be engaged directly. That's what knocking on

doors is for. That's what doing rallies is for. That's

what going out every day, engaging with voters. That's, you know,

with black voters, brown voters, everyone in between. This is

something that, you know, that Republicans cannot lose. They're setting

the ball on this one.

Speaker 1: Some of these GOP candidates, not unlike the president, have

leaned into race baiting as far as I'm concerned. I'm

thinking of Tom Tiffany and his racist dog whistle in

that governor's race in Wisconsin. He may be a little

too racial, if not racist, for voters in Wisconsin. We

shall see. But again, if the president can get away

with it, there are candidates who think they can get

away with it in that particular race or in other races.

How much trouble is the GOP in for, again, trying

to emulate Donald Trump by or with these racist dog

whistles in some of these races?

Speaker 3: Well, I guess I'm not familiar with what you're referring

to with Tom Tiffany with that. But like his regardless

that his race, you know, it's about a three point

margin right now. This is Wisconsin, as we like to say,

is it's purple, but it's it's bright purple because it's

bright red and bright blue. So this is an opportunity where,

you know, President Trump won in 2024, but they were

able to hold on with the Democratic governor in what

was supposed to be a Republican year in 2022. So

this is the fact that it's a three-point race now.

You know, this is really interesting. This is where if

your party says, I'm excited to vote, I'm excited to

get out, that's going to be the tiebreaker here. And

so I think Tom Tiffany has a good shot. But

of course, you know, we're The electorate, you know, in Wisconsin,

they are, like I said, is bright blue and bright red.

And so if team bright blue is more excited to vote,

you know, that's going to be an uphill climb for

Republican voters or Republican candidates. But, you know, there's still

time to turn that around and make sure that our

people get.

Speaker 1: Out to vote. Well, I was referencing, since you are

unfamiliar with, I was referencing this Wisconsin race because of

what Tom Tiffany is doing there. is a tactic that

other Republicans have tried and used, sadly, successfully in many races,

and that is raising the crime issue. If you elect

a Democrat, if you elect, in this case, the black Democrat,

crime is going to be out of control in Wisconsin.

Look at Milwaukee and the rest of the state. Do

we want that in Wisconsin? So we've seen this a

thousand times. It's the new version of Willie Horton from

the Bush era. during the Michael Dukakis race. I digress

on that particular issue right now, but that's what I

was referencing when I raised the issue of Tom Tiffany.

Tell me why it is. I can respect the spin,

but tell me why it is and what data points

you're looking at. You certainly can't look at any poll numbers,

but tell me why you believe that Donald Trump flatly

is not dragging the party down.

Speaker 3: He keeps that voting coalition together. He is turning out

Democrats are super excited to vote. Um, but if people,

you know, him doing, uh, rallies, for instance, Tavis, it's,

it's not just about the you rah rah. It's not

just about the, uh, the size of the crowd, the

roar of the crowd, the, you know, hitting a jab

at the media or Democrats here or there.

Speaker 2: Yeah.

Speaker 3: That's all part of it. It's like, it's kind of

like a concert. It's, if you've never been to a

Trump rally, it's, it's something else. It's, it's nothing, nothing

like this we've ever seen in politics, but it's, The

more important part of that is it is a voter

data gathering machine. So this is everyone who attends, you

get their phone number, you get their email address, you

get to then text them reminders, go out and vote,

maybe go out, get your friends to vote, donate a

dollar here, learn how to knock on doors in your neighborhood.

So there is a turnout mechanism that turns out with

these rallies that I think is really underappreciated in American politics,

especially in the last couple of weeks of an election season,

If you're able to generate buzz among several thousand people

who are low propensity voters or were potentially sitting this

one out, as what we're seeing with state across states

across states, if it's razor thin margins here, the people

who attend a rally who were previously unconvinced, that can

make the difference in a race.

Speaker 1: Speaking of knocking on doors, listen to Ken Martin, chair

of the DNC.

Speaker 2: Look, I've been traveling all over the country nonstop over

the last several weeks, and I can tell you there

doesn't seem to be any complacency setting. And just the opposite.

Democrats are fired up. They're ready for this election, of course.

And we've seen that over the last 20 months since

I've been chair of the DNC. Record high turnout amongst

Democratic partisans.

Speaker 3: Right.

Speaker 2: And record low turnout with Republicans. And that has continued unabated.

Democrats are really fired up. Now, look, I've said to

folks all the time, momentum certainly is on our side.

We've got wind at our back. But momentum doesn't knock

on doors. It doesn't turn out voters. It doesn't register

a first time voter. We've still got to do that

work if we want to take advantage of this wave.

Speaker 1: He's right about that. Momentum does not knock on doors.

That's one thing Ken Martin is right about. He screwed

up a few other things. He's right about that. Let

me close on this. I got a tight 60 seconds

to go. I've said this before, and I'll say it again.

You tell me if I'm right or wrong. If Democrats

pull this off, if there is, in fact, a blue

wave come Tuesday, November 3rd, it will not be because

people love the Democrats so much. It will not be

because of the Democrats' brilliant strategy. It will be not

because they love the Democrats, but because they hated Donald Trump.

Am I right or wrong?

Speaker 3: I would agree with that, and that the Republican electorate,

Republican-leaning independents, did not feel inspired to show up to vote.

So I think it is a math game at that point.

The driver for Democrats is definitely there. As we've articulated,

they have not really demonstrated any sort of message on

what they would actually do. That's not their job right

now as people running, but we're going to have to see.

Speaker 1: It is a math game, as Mark Bednar said, and

we will have to see. come Tuesday, November 3rd or

4th or 5th or 6th or 7th, you take my point.

We won't know everything within 24 hours. Of course, we

already know that. We do know that Mark Bednar is

a GOP strategist and former communications director for House Speaker

Kevin McCarthy. Mark, thanks for your insights. We love hearing

from the other side. Good to have you on the program.

Speaker 3: Tavis, thanks so much.

Speaker 1: More of Tavis Smiley when we come forward.