Dominic Smith Delivers Decisive Double in Dramatic Win Over Marlins
Shawn Coleman and Stephen Tolbert are back at to recap a big come from behind win for the Braves. Dominic Smith has been amazing for Atlanta, perhaps the best story of the season so far. Plus, more concerns on the pitching, but the bullpen reminds everyone how elite it can be. Finally, Bryce Elder takes the mound tomorrow to get another series win.
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Speaker 1: Welcome one and all to the hem A Territory podcast.
Speaker 1: My name is Sean Covid. Hope, wherever you are and
Speaker 1: wherever you are listening, you are having a great Tuesday evening.
Speaker 1: If you're a Brave band, you certainly should some drama.
Speaker 1: Seemed like it was going to be the same sort
Speaker 1: of script as it was on Monday night, but this
Speaker 1: time around the Braves were able to get the job
Speaker 1: done a cot from behind victory over the Marlins six
Speaker 1: to five. Again, it seemed like much of the same
Speaker 1: setup from Monday evening, but the Braves, the way that
Speaker 1: they have been able to win games pretty consistently early
Speaker 1: in the season late and eat production. It's some come
Speaker 1: from behind magic. They were able to do it once
Speaker 1: again once again with me. He's what about good friends?
Speaker 1: My podcast partner, what are the best? When it comes
Speaker 1: to breaking down the Braves? Steven Pulbert, Steven, how are
Speaker 1: you ser?
Speaker 2: What's up? Buddy? Here we are again twenty four hours later. Obviously,
Speaker 2: last night was not the most fun we've ever had
Speaker 2: watching the Braves. Tonight was wild. What a wild game.
Speaker 2: It looked like it was just gonna be the most
Speaker 2: frustrating one run loss felt like we watched that loss
Speaker 2: about eighty times last year, where like the team just
Speaker 2: couldn't score, and like there was one run, but that
Speaker 2: one run felt like twelve runs, and like the offense
Speaker 2: just couldn't get anything going, felt like we were gonna
Speaker 2: do it again. And then Tom Smith and of course
Speaker 2: we're going to talk about the whole game, but man,
Speaker 2: just what a what a fun win is kind of
Speaker 2: a theft if I'm being honest, and but you take them,
Speaker 2: and we didn't get a lot of them last year.
Speaker 2: We hadn't got a lot of them last two years,
Speaker 2: to be honest with you, these comeback wins. The Braves
Speaker 2: used to be known for this. So yeah, just a
Speaker 2: really fun.
Speaker 1: Night, absolutely, and I think he hit the deal on
Speaker 1: the head of you know, something to get We're looking
Speaker 1: for these, these small but signs indications that this team
Speaker 1: this year is not what it was in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: five or for much in twenty twenty four. Not necessarily
Speaker 1: going to be convinced we're close to what we were
Speaker 1: in twenty two or twenty three yet, but what makes
Speaker 1: us better, what makes us closer to potentially being a
Speaker 1: team that we can believe can make the playoffs and
Speaker 1: survive in the playoffs, and the ability to be able
Speaker 1: to come from behind and get wins is a big
Speaker 1: reason why. But beyond the ability to come from behind,
Speaker 1: perhaps the most pleasant development of the season so far
Speaker 1: has been the subject of our Mixed it Up segment.
Speaker 1: It's Dob Smith and we're about to mix it up
Speaker 1: all about him. Engineered by fasten All. It is no
Speaker 1: surprise that all Dob Smith has been delivered all season long. Now,
Speaker 1: what's backtrack a bit. Let's go back a month or
Speaker 1: so as we're looking at spring trading. I believe it
Speaker 1: was around this time, an maybe it was a little
Speaker 1: bit more than a month, but it was about this
Speaker 1: where we were still kind of really you know, from
Speaker 1: the news that Jerks and Profar was going to be suspended.
Speaker 1: He was going to be out for the season. When
Speaker 1: it came to, you know, being suspended for PDS for
Speaker 1: the second straight year, so feth the Braves are less grambling.
Speaker 1: What were they going to do to try to fill
Speaker 1: that hole in their line of And as we were,
Speaker 1: as many of us as we speculated for weeks on
Speaker 1: weeks on this show saw many different possible out you know,
Speaker 1: possible ways to go in social media. Things such as
Speaker 1: that saw beat writers speculating what have you. Don Smith
Speaker 1: just kept producing in spring training, just kept producing, kept producing,
Speaker 1: and it could not have transitioned to the season more beautifully.
Speaker 1: Of course, I believe it was the second game of
Speaker 1: the year where he hit that you know, go ahead
Speaker 1: grand slam against the Royals, and he has just kept producing.
Speaker 1: It has been exactly what the Braves needed when we
Speaker 1: have these cold streaks. It's the bottom of the order
Speaker 1: producing that allows for us to be able to bounce back.
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what he's done time and time again.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been unbelieve I mean, it's just one of
Speaker 2: the greatest story. I mean, I listen, I get that
Speaker 2: it's probably not gonna last for one hundred and sixty
Speaker 2: two games, but like even if it doesn't, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: Like this has just been one of the coolest stories.
Speaker 2: Like what happened. You know, obviously he lost a parent
Speaker 2: in spring and like it was just this devastating loss.
Speaker 2: He kind of makes the team unexpectedly because of the
Speaker 2: profi stuff, and not only is he on the team,
Speaker 2: but like he's the primary DH against right handed pitching,
Speaker 2: which means he's the strong side of the platoon basically
Speaker 2: where he's gonna play a bunch and you know, the
Speaker 2: two big moments, of course, the walk off Grand Slam
Speaker 2: and then the Big Three Run Double Tonight, and we're
Speaker 2: gonna talk about the whole game as we go through
Speaker 2: this episode. The Big three Run Double Tonight. Obviously, those
Speaker 2: are the moments that everybody remembers. But for me, what
Speaker 2: has stood out has been it's not just big moment, like,
Speaker 2: he's just been consistently very good, Like Dom Smith has
Speaker 2: a two to oh one WRC plus right now and
Speaker 2: that's through you know, forty one played appearance through like
Speaker 2: fifteen games, and so it's not just you know, he's
Speaker 2: coming up in big moments and delivering and then doing
Speaker 2: nothing else. He's just consistently been one of the Braves'
Speaker 2: best hitters for the first three weeks of the season.
Speaker 2: And you know, Akunya has not gotten off to the
Speaker 2: start he wanted, Riley has not gotten off to the start.
Speaker 2: Yeaz Mikey Strimsky has not gotten off to the start
Speaker 2: he wanted. Like the Braves have needed this and obviously
Speaker 2: in these two games, that's two losses. The Braves would
Speaker 2: have won their Ledger the second game of the year
Speaker 2: in this one if Tom Smith doesn't come up with
Speaker 2: those with those hits. So it really has been incredible.
Speaker 2: I'm so happy for him. I've said this before, but
Speaker 2: everybody will tell you, like Tom Smith is just like
Speaker 2: an amazing dude, Like he's an incredible clophouse guy. He's
Speaker 2: a guy that's had success in the majors before it.
Speaker 2: You know, he's kind of the quintessential like baseball is hard, example,
Speaker 2: or like you could have some early success, but like
Speaker 2: baseball's hard and you're gonna go through some some crazy struggles.
Speaker 2: You know. He had to, he had to settle for
Speaker 2: a minor league deal this offseason. He really didn't have
Speaker 2: a job. I don't know if it would be on
Speaker 2: the team if Profar doesn't get popped for another PD suspension.
Speaker 2: And all he's done is just take full advantage, Like
Speaker 2: you get this opportunity kind of out of nowhere, and
Speaker 2: he's just taking full advantage. And I'm so incredibly happy
Speaker 2: for him. It's been it's been unbelievable to watch. I
Speaker 2: can't believe it happened again tonight, three run double when
Speaker 2: the Braids are down two run I mean, just just
Speaker 2: unbelievable stuff.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's great to see it. Listen, let's talk
Speaker 1: about you know, Okay, it's been awesome the same and
Speaker 1: again I think it shods of importance. Oud how much
Speaker 1: better it is with the bottom of your order can
Speaker 1: be producing, right, Like, that's that's what was. That's the
Speaker 1: difference between like twenty twenty three in the past two
Speaker 1: years in now. Last year we were starting to go
Speaker 1: through the bottom of the order of Nick Allen, Michael Harris,
Speaker 1: Azzy Albi's just doing nothing nine end of nine out.
Speaker 1: But this year we're seeing the Braves have one of
Speaker 1: the best bottom of the orders when it comes to
Speaker 1: offerings and production in baseball. And you see the difference.
Speaker 1: There are nights where we struggled. Tonight we struggled overall.
Speaker 1: It felt like he was just gonna be frustrating because
Speaker 1: not only were we turning towards a one round loss,
Speaker 1: but we had runners on base ad after any after
Speaker 1: any that just could not get the job done. Our
Speaker 1: best stinners couldn't get the job done. But once again,
Speaker 1: it was the bottom of our order, and it's it's
Speaker 1: so much easier to keep your offense consistent when you
Speaker 1: have bottom of the order production. But to Dob Smith specifically,
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna have a two or one
Speaker 1: RC plus. But I also don't think that his production
Speaker 1: is just gonna fall off the wayside. We're here in
Speaker 1: a week or so, he's gonna have a fifty WRC
Speaker 1: plus for the rest of the year. He had a
Speaker 1: one nineteen WRC plus last year. Versus right handed pitching,
Speaker 1: he has a one h two in his career. He
Speaker 1: spell off over the past few years was really good
Speaker 1: early in his career. Don't forget, though, the Braves are
Speaker 1: one of the best in baseball at being able to
Speaker 1: kind of pick these hitters off the scrap heap that
Speaker 1: have had success earlier in their careers and had kind
Speaker 1: of fallen off in recent times before they came to
Speaker 1: the Braves. The Braves have had a lot of success
Speaker 1: of taking that type of player set up and helping
Speaker 1: them rEFInd what worked in the past and regain some
Speaker 1: of their value that they had during your previous best days.
Speaker 1: And we could see that once again. To geinst Dob Smith,
Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is is you now start to
Speaker 1: have some really interesting conversations when it comes to Dob Smith,
Speaker 1: do you move him up in the order potentially and
Speaker 1: put Mike Reeve Stripsky down towards the bottom of the order.
Speaker 1: Do you continue to play Dob Smith regularly as you
Speaker 1: get Sean Murphy at hasaud came back? That becomes the conversation,
Speaker 1: And I think in both cases it's a resounding GISs.
Speaker 1: You need to do whatever you can to make this
Speaker 1: offense as consistent as possible, and right now it's hard
Speaker 1: to argue that, you know, perhaps outside of Drake Baldwood,
Speaker 1: Dob Smith has been your best hitter. Read this line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it really has. I mean it's really not you know,
Speaker 2: I guess you could argue for Matt Olsen a little bit,
Speaker 2: but like it's been those three guys in de Bond,
Speaker 2: you know, it's just been guys not really you would expect,
Speaker 2: and then some guys who've gotten off to slow starts.
Speaker 2: And I do think, I mean, you know, Tom Smith
Speaker 2: is not like Won Soto, Like he's not gonna have
Speaker 2: a two hundred WRC plus this year. So there will
Speaker 2: be a point in time where we see a bit
Speaker 2: of regression, but all the games that he wins for
Speaker 2: you until that time still count the same. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, it's not like they take any wins away
Speaker 2: from your ledger just because Dom Smith doesn't keep this
Speaker 2: up all year long. These wins still matter, they still
Speaker 2: count the same, and it's just been unbelievable. And to
Speaker 2: your point about the lineup, I am very curious. You know,
Speaker 2: the right left, right left stuff I get, and the
Speaker 2: Braves have done it well. They basically put Yustremsky after
Speaker 2: Riley and then put Ozzy right there and then let
Speaker 2: Dom bat after Ozzy, which is usually like seventh in
Speaker 2: the order. I think Michael Harris and Debon have been
Speaker 2: rounding out the bottom, so I could see them flipping
Speaker 2: maybe Dom and Yaz. I could also just see like
Speaker 2: Walt saying, you know what, the bottom of the lineup
Speaker 2: has been so good. Maybe I don't want them. Maybe
Speaker 2: maybe I want to keep the same the vibe where
Speaker 2: we're not just automatic outs at the bottom. We got
Speaker 2: some guys getting on base for the guys at the
Speaker 2: top of the order. I don't know, I'm I'm actually
Speaker 2: interested in what they do, but it starts with just
Speaker 2: you know, having a guy and credit to the organization. Listen,
Speaker 2: they signed him on a minor league deal. Anybody in
Speaker 2: baseball could have signed this guy. You know, obviously, no
Speaker 2: one knew this was gonna come the first three weeks,
Speaker 2: and again we don't expect it to continue at this level.
Speaker 2: But credit to the organization. They obviously saw something in
Speaker 2: Dom Smith, and he has had success in the past
Speaker 2: where they thought they could get some value. And I
Speaker 2: don't think they ever thought he would be playing this much.
Speaker 2: I know they didn't obviously because they you know, it
Speaker 2: was clear by how much they paid it to get
Speaker 2: him in the minor of the deal, he was just
Speaker 2: going to be a depth piece, and he's just taken
Speaker 2: full advantage and just all the credit in the world
Speaker 2: to him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the thing is is that, you know, this
Speaker 1: is a team that also has over the past couple
Speaker 1: of years, has not had many developments where their projected
Speaker 1: room for error has actually been more than they thought
Speaker 1: from unexpected sources. I know, I'll getting very specific into
Speaker 1: how I'm wording that's, but I'm getting that Dob Smith,
Speaker 1: he's been a luxury, right. You know, listen, if he
Speaker 1: falls off, Okay, what do you do? You simply put
Speaker 1: Drake Baldwood more often at DH and you put Sean
Speaker 1: Murphy behind the plate. Yeah, that's what you wouldn't do
Speaker 1: as long as long as you got it. So having
Speaker 1: Dobb Smith produce like he is also strengthened the team
Speaker 1: because now you're gonna have a more quality bitch because
Speaker 1: of what he's doing, so on and so forth. So
Speaker 1: Dobb Smith remaining successful has a trickle down effect to
Speaker 1: make the team itself better as well. So it's just
Speaker 1: a great development to see happen. But today we're gonna
Speaker 1: do a little bit of one eighty. Last night, after
Speaker 1: you know, talking about the loss a bit, we looked
Speaker 1: at some positives as to you know, that we took
Speaker 1: away from what we felt was a quote unquote schedule loss.
Speaker 1: Even though the Braves would tonight's game, which you certainly
Speaker 1: will take all day long, there were a few concerns
Speaker 1: when it came to the pitching staff. More of that
Speaker 1: just a moment after a word from our.
Speaker 2: Sponsors, fasten All Industrial Supplies Innovative Solution. Want to learn more,
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Speaker 1: So, of course, Stephen, we talk about the fact that
Speaker 1: it was wonderful to see that happened in the eighth
Speaker 1: and need the three red double from Dobb Smith. Again,
Speaker 1: the Braves offense just kind of like Monday. They were
Speaker 1: knocking over the door all game log but just couldn't
Speaker 1: get it done. Felt like even though they had some
Speaker 1: pretty good success early, you know, earlier in the game
Speaker 1: with Ruders in scoring position, they just kept letting opportunity
Speaker 1: opportunity pass. It was great to see them finally cash
Speaker 1: he had to get the win, but again, some concerns
Speaker 1: when it comes to the pitching staff. First thing, Renald
Speaker 1: Lopez just didn't have it tonight, at least early on.
Speaker 1: Seven of the first eleven Marlins hitters that came to
Speaker 1: the plate, they worked a three to one or three
Speaker 1: to zero capped. And they're a good enough lineup to
Speaker 1: where if you're going to consistently allow for them to
Speaker 1: get into that good of a hitter's count, they're gonna
Speaker 1: make you pay when you have to throw strikes. Beyond that,
Speaker 1: the thing that starts to be a bit concerned it
Speaker 1: is I think it's pretty clear that the Renaldo Lopez
Speaker 1: that we're seeing right now is not to the same
Speaker 1: level that we saw in twenty twenty four. I think
Speaker 1: that's probably not gonna come as a surprise to medi
Speaker 1: but it's just kind of not fun to see because
Speaker 1: you really would love for him to be, you know,
Speaker 1: close to what he was in twenty to twenty four,
Speaker 1: though that was always a mirage. The second thing beyond
Speaker 1: Renald Lopez specifically Stephen that really starts to stand out.
Speaker 1: You started talking about the regression of the starting pitching.
Speaker 1: It clearly is subtly did. But what makes it even
Speaker 1: more concerning it subtenly did in this stretch against into
Speaker 1: l East teams. You're facing hitters that are more familiar
Speaker 1: with your pitchers than itdy would, so that kind of
Speaker 1: makes it even worse. Again, the Braves got the win
Speaker 1: tonight from a Ronaldo Lopez perspective, though, pretty pretty rough start,
Speaker 1: and there are some concerns everybody comes to his control.
Speaker 1: And also it's a bit concerned to see this pitchy
Speaker 1: regression subtenly did against this stretch of Ita least opponents.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was it certainly. I mean Ronaldo did not
Speaker 2: look great tonight, uh for sure. Obviously the second inning
Speaker 2: really got away from him. You know, the Marlins, it
Speaker 2: was really loud contact. Thankfully, the Marlins like forgot how
Speaker 2: to run bases for a couple of innings because it
Speaker 2: was probably it probably it was for nothing. After the
Speaker 2: second inning, it probably should have been like six nothing.
Speaker 2: Mike Uschemsky made a hell of a play on a
Speaker 2: diving catch on a line drive that endo the inning
Speaker 2: that you know, would have been another run. The Marlins
Speaker 2: ran themselves out of another one. It easily could have
Speaker 2: been like six or seven runs tonight. And so Ronaldo
Speaker 2: didn't look good, and you know, the pitching was always
Speaker 2: going to back up a little bit. It just was
Speaker 2: like I still don't understand why people were mad about
Speaker 2: that comment, like just just purely based off the numbers,
Speaker 2: just completely objectively looking at it, there was no way
Speaker 2: that Ronaldo was gonna maintain a one ERA and a
Speaker 2: five FIP. Now, I don't think that Ronaldo was a
Speaker 2: five Like, I don't think it's like five FIP is
Speaker 2: his true talent level either, by the way, Like I
Speaker 2: think he's gonna probably end up somewhere around a four
Speaker 2: ERA four FIP, maybe high threes if it goes well.
Speaker 2: I am worried about his I am worried about his
Speaker 2: pitch performance, how his pitches are actually performing. You know,
Speaker 2: for a lot of the season, Ronaldo's been running like
Speaker 2: a two hundred babbit, and that's kind of hidden some
Speaker 2: of the issues. But when that stabilizes up closer to
Speaker 2: three hundred, which where it's gonna be eventually, I think
Speaker 2: you're gonna see the lack of strikeouts. Although he did
Speaker 2: end up striking out like five guys after the big
Speaker 2: rally in the second like, he came back and struggled
Speaker 2: out I think five in the next like seven hitters
Speaker 2: or something like that. So that was a good sign.
Speaker 2: If Ronaldo can actually start missing more bats, my worry
Speaker 2: for him goes down. Like my concern with Lonaldo has
Speaker 2: been how much contact driven how many contact driven outs
Speaker 2: he's getting and depending on to get through outings, because
Speaker 2: it's just not consistent. It's just gonna be up and down.
Speaker 2: And so it was good to see him actually miss
Speaker 2: some bats after the beginning. Again, I really appreciate the
Speaker 2: Marlins for running themselves after a couple more because it
Speaker 2: really could have been five or six runs but they didn't.
Speaker 2: And you know, the bullpen, obviously we're gonna talk about
Speaker 2: here in a minute, did their job. But yeah, I'm
Speaker 2: not Ronald wo was never gonna be a one era
Speaker 2: picture with the Perferle Sies running. Grant Holmes was never
Speaker 2: gonna be a one era picture with the perfole Sies running.
Speaker 2: I don't think Bryce Elder is gonna be a one
Speaker 2: era pitcher. Like this was always gonna come. It was
Speaker 2: a matter of can the offense and the bullpen cover
Speaker 2: it up when it does come. And that's exactly what
Speaker 2: we saw tonight. We saw the offense covered up and
Speaker 2: we saw the bullpen covered up, and that's what that's
Speaker 2: what's gonna have to happen. So I I am gonna
Speaker 2: be curious to watch Ronaldo as he makes his way
Speaker 2: through the next few starts. I still am not one
Speaker 2: hundred percent sure what kind of season we're looking at, Like,
Speaker 2: are we looking at like a four era four FIP
Speaker 2: season because you can manage that. Is it gonna be
Speaker 2: in the threes, which is even better? Is it? Or
Speaker 2: is it gonna get like up into the fives. That's
Speaker 2: what I'm not sure of yet. I'm not completely confident
Speaker 2: in what I'm watching, and I'm not really sure what
Speaker 2: I'm watching yet, So we're not drawing any conclusions, but
Speaker 2: just based off the numbers, there was always going to
Speaker 2: be a baseline level of regression that was gonna happen
Speaker 2: to the these crazy low eras the Braser run.
Speaker 1: While the concern is there with Ronald Lopez again, you
Speaker 1: to regressing setting in for the starting pitching. Overall, I
Speaker 1: do feel that tonight is much more meaningful in terms
Speaker 1: of being an actual representation of how the Braves are
Speaker 1: going to consistently be throughout the season than yesterday. Yesterday
Speaker 1: you had Grant Holmes, Aaron Bubber, Rodney Budiez who pitched
Speaker 1: the majority of the games, gave up the majority of
Speaker 1: the runs in Big bumb But you're not going to
Speaker 1: see those guys, o correct, right Tonight Tonight you saw
Speaker 1: the guys who are going to matter. You saw the
Speaker 1: guys who are going to be there in high leverage situations,
Speaker 1: and they got the job done. You expected that from
Speaker 1: the bullpen, you expected that from the guys that took
Speaker 1: the band. But STEVENA Knowsa that stood out to you
Speaker 1: was a bit of a difference when it came to
Speaker 1: the menagerial approach. And what is certainly stood out is
Speaker 1: a big difference between Walt Weiss as well as Brian Sticker,
Speaker 1: is that he's going for the win when it comes
Speaker 1: to his bullpion, so it's always dice to have that
Speaker 1: bull fed as fresh as possible.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we watched this a lot over the years
Speaker 2: with Brian Snicker, where he would treat a one run
Speaker 2: deficit as a lower leverage situation than like a four
Speaker 2: run lead. And I never got that, because it's always
Speaker 2: more likely that you're going to win a game where
Speaker 2: you're down by one than it is that you're going
Speaker 2: to lose a game where you're up by four. But
Speaker 2: he would always reverse them, and he would, and he
Speaker 2: drove me crazy for years, and we talked about it
Speaker 2: a million times. And I will say it was a
Speaker 2: little easier for Walt to make that decision tonight because honestly,
Speaker 2: the only guys who were like fully rested were the
Speaker 2: high leverage guys. The low leverage guys have been used
Speaker 2: so much the last week because of how many blowouts
Speaker 2: the Braves have played in that it's very likely the
Speaker 2: only guys available were the high leverage guy. So you know,
Speaker 2: in some ways it was a decision kind of made
Speaker 2: for him. But I have seen Walt be aggressive with
Speaker 2: his high leverage relievers, his best relievers when the team
Speaker 2: is not winning or even when it's not tied multiple
Speaker 2: times now this season, and I want to give him
Speaker 2: credit for that, because that's how you should be using
Speaker 2: those guys, you know, especially if you're gonna play a
Speaker 2: lot of blowouts and you're not gonna use him a
Speaker 2: ton anyways, when you're only down by one run, this
Speaker 2: is a team that has to be driven by its
Speaker 2: offense and its bullpen, in my opinion, and we've said
Speaker 2: that a bunch already. I think the rotation is going
Speaker 2: to show to be more of kind of an average rotation.
Speaker 2: I think it's Chris Sale and then a lot of
Speaker 2: question marks at least until we get some guys back.
Speaker 2: You gotta trust your bullpen and you gotta trust your offense.
Speaker 2: And that means when you're down by one run in
Speaker 2: the fifth inning, which is what happened tonight, Ronaldo actually
Speaker 2: did a good job of getting through five after that
Speaker 2: blow up inning in the second that could have gotten
Speaker 2: real ugly if he got knocked out like the third inning,
Speaker 2: So give him credit for getting through five. But he
Speaker 2: was at ninety six pitches he had to come out,
Speaker 2: and I was very curious what what was gonna do
Speaker 2: because they were still down to run, and they brought
Speaker 2: in Dylan Lee and Tyler Kinley and uh Robert Torrez
Speaker 2: and Rossie Iglesias and then just trusted that the offense
Speaker 2: would cover the margin. And that's what you should do
Speaker 2: when you're down by one run. There was just too
Speaker 2: many times over the years where we would punt those games.
Speaker 2: We'd put in our worst relievers, and then to be
Speaker 2: a game we're up by five runs and you'd see
Speaker 2: all the best relievers and I'm like, this is completely backwards.
Speaker 2: We have like missed the point of leverage here, and
Speaker 2: I'm happy to see Walt do it the way that
Speaker 2: I think it should be done.
Speaker 1: Speaking of getting better instead of speaking there, I got
Speaker 1: myself off. Mute, Steven, look at you, Look at you.
Speaker 1: That's gross, that that that hiatus. Everybody's getting better, everybody's
Speaker 1: getting better.
Speaker 2: That's that's that's not two kids. You got two kids now,
Speaker 2: So exactly, just a different guy.
Speaker 1: Tention to details got to be best.
Speaker 2: Crazy.
Speaker 1: What other thing that I would have put a spotlight
Speaker 1: on real quickly as well? And I don't think that
Speaker 1: we're going should even know is the defense of this team?
Speaker 1: You see baseball Savah. You see a many of the
Speaker 1: metrics out there, for whatever value you would have put
Speaker 1: in them, the Braves are near the top overall in
Speaker 1: terms of team performance. And tonight that on's a good
Speaker 1: stood out if I remember correctly. You know, of course
Speaker 1: you had the play with Ustripsky out in left field,
Speaker 1: but also don't forget Ronald played the ball off the
Speaker 1: wall giving it to God. And when we talk about
Speaker 1: Devad being an elite fielder no matter where he is,
Speaker 1: it was that play right there him immediately know he'd
Speaker 1: swerve around after he got the relay throw from Ronald
Speaker 1: and made the play at the plate which saved a run,
Speaker 1: that saved two roods, and that was the difference in
Speaker 1: the game. So the defense overall from this team has
Speaker 1: been outstanding. That is what can make a difference in
Speaker 1: games against quality opponents. But that defense has been just
Speaker 1: as consistent as our bullpit. And what other thing about
Speaker 1: it is it's one of the aspects of this team
Speaker 1: that is legit like we legitimately are a very good
Speaker 1: fit team. Should stay as it advantage against other teams
Speaker 1: throughout the year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, great point. Yeah, the play by Sky to
Speaker 2: save a run with a diving catch. There was another
Speaker 2: time where they hit a single to Ronald and just
Speaker 2: like the thread of his arm stopped to run the
Speaker 2: playoff the wall. You're talking about the Breves another double player.
Speaker 2: I think they've turned a double play in like every
Speaker 2: game this year so far. I think I saw that
Speaker 2: where they've done like fifteen straight games or sixteen straight
Speaker 2: games with a double play turned. Yeah, the defense has
Speaker 2: been incredible. And I want to give one other shout out,
Speaker 2: so obviously if you missed it. In the eighth inning,
Speaker 2: the Braids were down four to three. Drake Baldwin starts
Speaker 2: the ending with a bloop single and then Olsen and
Speaker 2: Riley both get out, and so it's it's two out
Speaker 2: with one runner on and y Strimpsey comes up and
Speaker 2: ropes a single. Yeah, he ropes a single to right,
Speaker 2: and then Ozzie gets hit by the pitch and then
Speaker 2: that's when Dom Smith hits the basis clearing uh double.
Speaker 2: But I want to give credit to Yaz for coming
Speaker 2: up and getting a hit there and extending that inning. Right,
Speaker 2: if Yas strikes out, that inning's over. If he pops out,
Speaker 2: that inning's over. And we never see any of this
Speaker 2: and very likely lose the game. So credit to Yas
Speaker 2: for coming up from for with a big hit. Obviously,
Speaker 2: Ozzie got hit with the pitch and then Dom. Another
Speaker 2: thing about that Dom Smith about is I'm pretty sure
Speaker 2: I have to go back and look, I'm pretty sure
Speaker 2: he started the count oh and two. I think he
Speaker 2: was owed to immediately and then worked like a six
Speaker 2: or seven pitches and then ripped a double to the
Speaker 2: opposite field, hit it to left field and crushed it.
Speaker 2: Just an incredible you know, just an incredible night it was.
Speaker 2: It was a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, and Age the Braves are winning, that's the
Speaker 1: big key, right and it is such a nice contrast
Speaker 1: from last year. But Steven and are going to have
Speaker 1: a bit more into the reasons why the Braves are winning.
Speaker 1: And there's one factor in all of this that's people
Speaker 1: were talking about. But it just reminds you of how
Speaker 1: better things could be it likely will be. As Todd
Speaker 1: goes on more of that in just a moment after
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Speaker 1: You so Stephen. Before we started the podcast, I wanted
Speaker 1: to talk a bit about the fact that the brains
Speaker 1: right now have three well you can really point to
Speaker 1: four consistent traits that are allowing them to win frequently,
Speaker 1: and these traits really stand down as be you know,
Speaker 1: worth minshitting because there it's okay to have these bea
Speaker 1: the reasons why you're winning when you're facing teams you
Speaker 1: should be beating. It's deefense, it's the bullpd, it is
Speaker 1: the bottom of your order producing will, and it is
Speaker 1: being able to be about the lead's best when it
Speaker 1: comes to producing late. That means that you're going to
Speaker 1: get comfort behind wins when you face you know, weaker bullpins.
Speaker 1: That means that you're going to be able to eventually
Speaker 1: let your talent come through as you go further into
Speaker 1: games as your facing weeker teams. And that's what you
Speaker 1: and I both mentioned before the season started, right, was
Speaker 1: that what stood out about the first thirty five games
Speaker 1: or so in this season is that on a nightly basis,
Speaker 1: the Braves should have the better offense and the better bullpit,
Speaker 1: so as they go further in the game, their advantage
Speaker 1: should increase. And we've seen that time and time again.
Speaker 1: But as you look forward in the Braves schedule over
Speaker 1: the next several weeks after the stretch against the last,
Speaker 1: the quality of competition becomes a bit stronger and it's
Speaker 1: going to be more important for the Braves to produce
Speaker 1: against doutely starting pitching, but also earlier in games and
Speaker 1: their best players producing as well, which brings me to
Speaker 1: my overall point, no doubt, the Braves are in a
Speaker 1: good position. I wouldn't necessarily call them a true contenderism
Speaker 1: yet because we still need to see the starting pitching
Speaker 1: and our best hitters get going. Ronald Acuni Judu right
Speaker 1: now has a seven sixteen OPS that is the worst
Speaker 1: of his career through eighteen games now, not for his
Speaker 1: first eighteen games of the season when he started as season.
Speaker 1: You know through you know that if there's anything that
Speaker 1: you can pretty much bet buddy on when it comes
Speaker 1: to this team, Ronald Cooney Junior is eventually going to produce. Yeah,
Speaker 1: at some point he's gonna take off. Because when you
Speaker 1: look at the overall production at the plate, you may
Speaker 1: be a bit dissatisfied. But you pointed out, and others
Speaker 1: have pointed out, comes from a lot of bad luck.
Speaker 1: But I do want to put the spotlight on that. Yes,
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think the way that the Braves are
Speaker 1: winning right now is that sustainable. But the one factor
Speaker 1: that matters more than anything. It then being a contender
Speaker 1: Ronald of Coonie Junior being a star that's eventually going
Speaker 1: to happen, and when it does, us having the record
Speaker 1: that we do right now makes it even better with
Speaker 1: the start that we've had.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good point because you know a lot
Speaker 2: of times if your best player isn't having the kind
Speaker 2: of start he wants, it costs you in the standings,
Speaker 2: and what you're getting from Dom Smith and Rissio Dubon
Speaker 2: and Jorge Matteo when he plays, what you're getting from
Speaker 2: those guys is helping you kind of cover that up
Speaker 2: until the results catch up to where all of Ronald's
Speaker 2: expected numbers are. I mean, I tweeted something out today
Speaker 2: like Ronald. There's a whole metric about like expected home runs,
Speaker 2: Like Ronald's one of the if not the unluckiest hitter
Speaker 2: in baseball. When it comes to homers, he should probably
Speaker 2: have like four or five. He has one. You know,
Speaker 2: all of his expected numbers look fantast Ronald's gonna. I'm
Speaker 2: not worried about Ronald's production overall, but like you were
Speaker 2: just saying, when you have the slow start in terms
Speaker 2: of results, that can affect the standings unless you have
Speaker 2: somebody else come along in that time period and help
Speaker 2: pick it up. Same with Riley and same with Yustrimsky.
Speaker 2: Quite honestly, that's three guys the braids were kind of
Speaker 2: depending on. They're not quite getting what they thought at
Speaker 2: least early, and then you have three other guys who
Speaker 2: are kind of covering it up and helping bridge the
Speaker 2: gap until those guys produce more. And that's that is
Speaker 2: how you sustain. And I've talked about this a lot
Speaker 2: of the last couple of years, the lineup being deeper
Speaker 2: to sustain when guys go cold, because the last two years,
Speaker 2: what we saw was when guys go cold, especially like
Speaker 2: the top guys, the offense just doesn't score runs, like
Speaker 2: there was just nobody there to help pick up the slack.
Speaker 2: When Olsen was colder, when Acunya was colder, when Riley, like,
Speaker 2: the depth wasn't there to sustain it. And that's what
Speaker 2: they have this year. They have Dom Smith, they have
Speaker 2: a shortstop in Marisio Dubon, who's not just a complete zero.
Speaker 2: I still believe Ustremsky's gonna hit. He just hasn't hit yet.
Speaker 2: Michael Harris at bats have looked better, Ozzie Albi's at
Speaker 2: bats have looked better, Like they just have more depth
Speaker 2: right now to sustain Ronald not having the results that
Speaker 2: that he should have once you know, they catch up
Speaker 2: to the expected stuff. So one hundred percent, this just
Speaker 2: not only does it help win games, it helps bridge
Speaker 2: the gap until some of your better players start playing
Speaker 2: the way you pretty well know they're going to get
Speaker 2: to eventually.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the big payoff is is that if we can continue,
Speaker 1: you know to win at this pace, you know, continue
Speaker 1: to you know, win sixty to sixty five percent of
Speaker 1: every fifteen games, you know, or at least the next
Speaker 1: fifteen games until we get to that tough stretch towards
Speaker 1: the end of April at burst of May. If by
Speaker 1: that time Ronald and Austin for instance, can get going,
Speaker 1: that's just gonna make things that much easier. Speaking of
Speaker 1: someone who's got better, that's Bryce Elder. You know, I
Speaker 1: know a lot has been put on what Bryce Elder
Speaker 1: has done since last August, and I don't necessarily think
Speaker 1: that it means that he's turned some significant quarter where
Speaker 1: he's back to where he was, you know, pre All
Speaker 1: Star Break twenty twenty three where the league didn't really
Speaker 1: know him. But I also feel as if one thing
Speaker 1: that we could point to, his control has gotten better.
Speaker 1: He certainly seems to be more confident in his overall pitches.
Speaker 1: Where I'm at with Bryce Elder is this for me.
Speaker 1: I think that we right now are at a spot
Speaker 1: to where give me his next three starts over the
Speaker 1: next ten or so days against ita least opponents, the
Speaker 1: teams that have seed him the most. And we know
Speaker 1: that his team, Seymour Bryce Elder, they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to have more success against him if he can
Speaker 1: make it through this stretch it's still remained productive. At
Speaker 1: that point, I'm gonna be ready to say, Okay, the
Speaker 1: Braves may have something, but beyond me saying that, I'll
Speaker 1: buy end, the Braves need for that to be the case.
Speaker 1: Tomorrow may no mistake about it. It's a big game Tomorrow.
Speaker 1: The Braves legitimately could win a series against the team
Speaker 1: that's second in the NL East right now, it'd be
Speaker 1: at a really good spot when they have another off
Speaker 1: day on Thursday. So they need a good performance from
Speaker 1: Bryce Selder. They work their bullpen to height, they need
Speaker 1: a five or six Indy start from Bryce Elder, and
Speaker 1: it would really be awesome to not see this Marlins
Speaker 1: team get out to that three plus run lead. So
Speaker 1: as good as Bryce Elder's been, this wretch coming up
Speaker 1: right now where he's faced hitters that are familiar with him,
Speaker 1: this is going to be a real test of is
Speaker 1: he truly a different picture? The bravested for that to
Speaker 1: prove to be the case to Borrow, because it would
Speaker 1: really be awesome to get this series win against the Borrowin's.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny like and I've talked about the trio
Speaker 2: of Ronaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder and how
Speaker 2: their eras have kind of outpaced their other pferles and
Speaker 2: there's a regression coming. The funny thing is that of
Speaker 2: that trio, Elder has the best peripherals by far, like
Speaker 2: Elder's you know, been striking out a decent amount. He's
Speaker 2: just under like one per nine, which is pretty good.
Speaker 2: He's not walking a lot of people right now, which
Speaker 2: is a huge thing for Bryce. We've talked about that
Speaker 2: a lot, where Bryce's command oftentimes will tell you very
Speaker 2: early in a Bryce start, what you're what you're about
Speaker 2: to watch. You know, he's limited hard contact. He's given
Speaker 2: up exactly one barrel this year and that's why you know,
Speaker 2: his running a very low babbit. But again, he's not
Speaker 2: giving up the hardest contact either. The defense the Braves
Speaker 2: have been playing obviously contributes to that as well. So
Speaker 2: I'm not ready just to say that Bryce Elder is
Speaker 2: going to revert back to the guy he was. There's
Speaker 2: been some changes, Like you know, it's been talked about
Speaker 2: a lot with the work he did with Greg Maddox
Speaker 2: and you know, how to use the slider and when
Speaker 2: to use the slider, and I'm very curious to watch
Speaker 2: that stuff progress. Do I think he's a one er pitcher.
Speaker 2: I do not, and I'm I'm not going to believe
Speaker 2: that until I see a much larger sample of it.
Speaker 2: But do I think he can be like a three
Speaker 2: er pitcher? I do. I do think that. I think
Speaker 2: he can be like a mid three guy, maybe a
Speaker 2: four guy. You know, the lack of velocity does hurt him,
Speaker 2: but everything moves when he's on. He misses barrels, he's
Speaker 2: got to just avoid the walks in the middle of
Speaker 2: the play. That's what Bryce has to do. And so yeah,
Speaker 2: I want to see what he looks like tomorrow. This
Speaker 2: Marlins lineup has come in to truest and I've been
Speaker 2: very impressed with some of their young hitters. And again,
Speaker 2: they don't have their best hitter. Kyle Stowers is not
Speaker 2: with the teams. He's currently rehabbing and he'll be back
Speaker 2: probably the next time we see Miami. But they have
Speaker 2: some young hitters that are fun to watch that if
Speaker 2: they've got some talent, they've got some pitching that's decent.
Speaker 2: The Braves actually, obviously the Marlins miss Sale and the
Speaker 2: Braves missed Sandy al Contra, so it was kind of
Speaker 2: even in that regard. But yeah, the Marlins are not
Speaker 2: a bad team. Like I would not be surprised at
Speaker 2: all if this is a five hundred team come the
Speaker 2: end of the year. So I want to see what
Speaker 2: Bryce looks like tomorrow against a pretty good maybe not
Speaker 2: a good lineup, but like a decent lineup. And I
Speaker 2: want to see, you know, every Bryce start is going
Speaker 2: to be interesting to me because I want to see
Speaker 2: these changes how he's using the slider, and I want
Speaker 2: to see where these peripherals go, Like what kind of
Speaker 2: guy are we gonna get this year? I'm I'm still
Speaker 2: not sure, but I'm I, you know, I want him
Speaker 2: to succeed. I would love for him to be awesome.
Speaker 2: And right now I actually kind of trust him a
Speaker 2: little bit more than Sale than uh not Sale, Lopez
Speaker 2: and Holmes because.
Speaker 1: Trust Brice Elder, You didn't I that's that's gonna be
Speaker 1: a snippet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, somebody's gonna snip that. I definitely trust Chris Selmore,
Speaker 2: but I, you know, again, the peripherles from Home, the
Speaker 2: peripherles from Elder have looked pretty good this year, so
Speaker 2: I do want to see what he continues to look like.
Speaker 2: And this Miami lineup has given everybody, you know, kind
Speaker 2: of a hard time, and I want to see what
Speaker 2: he does against them.
Speaker 1: But let's also I've a bit deeper, real quickly into
Speaker 1: this Viaby lineup because they're not doing it through power, right,
Speaker 1: They're not hitting a bunch of home runs, honestly, what
Speaker 1: is Yeah, that's what stood out, And what also stood
Speaker 1: out is the walks both great Homes as well as
Speaker 1: Ronald Lopez. They just lost control. They didn't have the control,
Speaker 1: but they needed. You put this Miamy Bartletts team, who's
Speaker 1: a speedy team on the base they're challenging Drake Balder,
Speaker 1: Drake bald what's not the that's the weakness in his
Speaker 1: game overall is the ability to hold runners. And that's
Speaker 1: not it's meant to be a criticism because I mean
Speaker 1: to be, you know, truly negative. It's just what it is,
Speaker 1: the truth. And teams are in So if the Braves
Speaker 1: are going to walk people frequently, those teams are going
Speaker 1: to know that they have a chance to steal and
Speaker 1: they're going to put that into action. That's what has
Speaker 1: been the success of the Marlins early in these two games.
Speaker 1: So how do you prevent that frow strikes? Just simply
Speaker 1: throw strikes and if Bryce Elder can throw strikes plus
Speaker 1: miss barrels, that could be a good setup to allow
Speaker 1: for the Braves to get the early lead that hopefully
Speaker 1: they can get to be able to support Elder and
Speaker 1: get that win. Because if you again we talk about
Speaker 1: we talk about the other thing that dismissed from these
Speaker 1: past two years is when the Braves have a chance
Speaker 1: to really find themselves in a good position tomorrow. If
Speaker 1: you win, you're twelve and seven, three games up in
Speaker 1: the division, you have an off day, then you have
Speaker 1: Chris sailed a very winnable game on Friday Night. That's
Speaker 1: if you win tomorrow. If you don't win, you're eleven
Speaker 1: to day one gave up to the East. It now
Speaker 1: becomes a pretty you know big must win on Friday.
Speaker 1: That's the difference this one game means. And again, I
Speaker 1: know I'm being pretty dramatic. With as early in the
Speaker 1: season as we are, You're being very dramatic. But the
Speaker 1: point that I'm getting at is is that even though
Speaker 1: I be dramatic, the more often that the Braves get
Speaker 1: the job done in these situations, it just builds up
Speaker 1: that room for error. It gets more quality competition later
Speaker 1: in the season. So that's the point that I'm getting at.
Speaker 1: Really being able to make the most of these opportunities,
Speaker 1: that is important to me. And again I'll admit i'd
Speaker 1: be dramatic, But if you want to talk about indications
Speaker 1: this team now is different than they have been the
Speaker 1: past two years, I would to see them deliver on
Speaker 1: the drama in these dramatic situations. Deliver on the drama
Speaker 1: hashtag deliver on the drama tag. Brad Roland. When you
Speaker 1: put that out there, reason I.
Speaker 2: Was about to say, using must win in April, Brad
Speaker 2: might show up to your house and throw a rock
Speaker 2: through your window, but no, they all count the same.
Speaker 2: The winds in April County exactly the same as the
Speaker 2: winds in September. So like one, like, go win. The
Speaker 2: Braves are the only team in baseball that haven't lost
Speaker 2: a series yet. Go win tomorrow, and you keep it rolling,
Speaker 2: and like you said, then you get Chris Saale back.
Speaker 2: I think it's I have to look, I haven't. I
Speaker 2: think it's Taiwan Walker against Chris Sale on Friday night
Speaker 2: in Philadelphia, which is obviously advantage Braves because Taiwan Walker's
Speaker 2: had a rough year. But yeah, go win to North
Speaker 2: Go win tomorrow. That's a huge one. I agree with you. Actually,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna back you up. I'm not gonna call it
Speaker 2: a must win because I don't want Brad Rolling to
Speaker 2: throw a rock through my window, but I am I
Speaker 2: do agree with you. I do think it's weird, but
Speaker 2: sweet must win. Okay, well we'll call it a must win.
Speaker 4: I like it.
Speaker 2: I'm in all aboard.
Speaker 1: Brad Cbs and throws a rock through the window. I'll
Speaker 1: have a glass of milk, Caliver. They're all beautiful I'm
Speaker 1: never gonna let that down. That's that's where, of course
Speaker 1: speak we can have run its course. We are happy
Speaker 1: to say that this episode of the Habit Territory podcast
Speaker 1: has run its course. A happy episode with another Braves win.
Speaker 1: You can find Steven Tolbert at b Underscore, Outliers on Twitter,
Speaker 1: slash x myself at stats, sac Habit Territory across all
Speaker 1: forms of social media, part of the Foul Territory family
Speaker 1: of podcasts. Big win for the Braves. Hell yeah, Dobb Smith,
Speaker 1: Let's get another victory. Grea tomorrow, Go Braves. We'll talk
Speaker 1: to you again soon here on the Hevery Territory Podcast